Rotoholics.com

(Be sure to follow Jimmy on Twitter for comments and updates on the picks and games throughout the day as well as the occasional bonus TWINNERs that come out only on game day: http://twitter.com/Jimmy_Geek)

NFL Week 4; College Week 5

What a miserable, pathetic performance last week. Some gamblers say you should never complain about a push, but that’s nonsense. We play to win. Anything less is unacceptable.

The good news is that after some questionable predictions, the system is due to put out nothing but winners, so I expect big things this weekend. And I mean big, like a craps table when the shooters get hot, really hot, and everybody starts betting and winning more on every roll, and the drinks taste sweeter and the chips pile up in front of you like colorful little markers of your greatness and brilliance for all to see. That’s how big we’re gonna roll this week. All points and no craps, baby, so get on the come line and let’s roll.

After last weekend’s 5-5 bomb, I’m in to The Man for $500 in juice, but I expect to make that back and more before the sun goes down Saturday.

SATURDAY: GETTING IT BACK

“Well, Dick, here’s the deal: I’m the best there is, plain and simple. I mean, I wake up in the morning and I piss excellence. You know, nobody can hang with my stuff. I’m just a,– just a big, hairy, American winning machine.”

- Ricky Bobby

Virginia at North Carolina

The Cavaliers are an impressive 0-3 this year including a home loss to William & Mary (which is actually a college, although Virginia could probably find a way to lose against two people named “William” and “Mary”). These two programs are headed in opposite directions. North Carolina wins BIG: Take the Tar Heels -13.5 over Virginia.

LSU at Georgia

Georgia is a propped up chump. Just like last year, they started the season with a talented team that may have competed in the Eastern division of the SEC, except for Florida of course – don’t be silly, but they’ve lost too many of their O and D linemen to injury. In today’s SEC, you can’t lose starters from the line and compete, especially when you’re consistently one of the most penalized teams in the country. That’s good coaching. Take the Tigers +3.5 – LSU rolls in Athens.

Ole Miss at Vanderbilt

Ole Miss was a top five team last week – which just goes to show you how stupid most of the people covering college football are. Tim Brando said Ole Miss had more talent on paper than Alabama. Good God, man, what are you smoking? Ole Miss has maybe three or four good players and a bunch of second-tier SEC wannabes. Note to Ole Miss fans: Last year is as good as it gets for you. Still, Vanderbilt is Vanderbilt. Take the Rebels -10 and bank it.

Oklahoma at Miami (***DOUBLE-DOWN LOCK***)

Miami is a fraud, a pretender. That Florida State win isn’t looking so great now, is it? Jacory Heisman, meet 9 for 25 for 150 yards with three sacks and an interception. Back to life, back to reality for the ‘Canes. Meanwhile, Oklahoma returns pretty much the whole defense from last year’s team, a defense that will probably hold Miami to negative total yardage. I’d take Oklahoma’s defense alone in a pick ‘em, and I’ll surely take the Sooners -7.5 at Miami. This is my first DOUBLE-DOWN LOCK of the year, and it’s got three stars, so throw down big and bank it.

USC at California

USC is almost never as good as everybody thinks they are when the season starts and almost never as bad as everybody thinks they are after they take their annual loss on the road to a terrible Pacifier-10 team. Against most Pac-10 teams, USC has a 2-1 talent advantage. I’m sure Pete Carroll is a nice, fun guy to hang with, but he’s soft, and his teams are soft. Nick Saban demands more focus and intensity from his housekeepers than Pete Carroll gets out of his players. But everyone can’t be Alabama, and it’s usually about this time of the year when Pete gets his team rolling through second-class teams like the Golden Bears. USC rolls Saturday night – take the Trojans -4.5.

SUNDAY:  THE DAY YOUR BOOKIE SCREAMS

“If you can accept losing, then you can’t win.”

- Vince Lombardi

Let’s face it – Sunday is the day you really want to take it to The Man. I mean, winning on Saturday is great, especially if you can carry a big fat bank of Saturday winnings into Sunday and soothe that hangover by playing all day on house money, just like we plan to do this week. From our commanding position atop a big pile of Saturday’s winners, we roll into the NFL weekend ready to finally TAKE YOUR MAN DOWN.

Baltimore at New England

They’re giving away money, and you don’t even have to stand in line. New England is a sham this year. Brady is over the hill and could barely muster enough points to beat Atlanta’s Swiss cheese defense. Baltimore is for real. Their defense lost half a step from previous years, but their offense is light years ahead. And they’re gunning for the Patriots (isn’t everyone?). Take the Ravens +2 and bank it.

Cincinnati at Cleveland

Is Cincinnati for real? I mean, that fluke play against Denver is the only thing keeping the Bengals – the freakin’ Bengals – from being 3-0. Carson Palmer hasn’t even started moving the ball well, and I don’t think Cleveland could possibly suck any more than they do right now, even though that circus of a coaching staff seems determined to try. Yes, I’m pissed off at you because I picked you last week and you didn’t even show up, but I think the tailspin continues: Take Cincy -6 for an easy win.

New York Giants at Kansas City

The Giants were as good as my word last week at Tampa Bay. I usually avoid the second game of a second consecutive road trip, but last week’s easy win should leave the Giants fresh enough for another business-like road victory against a struggling Kansas City team. I thought Brodie Croyle looked pretty damn good week 1 – the Chief’s go nowhere until they bench their Pac-10 pretender for the SEC contender. Giants -9.

New York Jets at New Orleans (DOUBLE WINNER)

This little thing with Sanchez and the Jets thinking they’re going to do something in the playoffs is cute, isn’t it? I mean, we all know where the Jets will be in January. So let them have their fun. But Sunday in the dome, Sanchez is going to get to see what a real NFL offense looks like. And he’s probably going to get to see a lot of it. The Jets D is due for a colossal collapse, and Drew Brees has made better units than this look like a Pac-10 team. Take the Saints -7 (and your double-winner BONUS pick: OVER 45.5). I think I might Parlay it – I’ll tweet my decision before game time.

Dallas at Denver

Dallas isn’t nearly as good as they hoped they would be, or even as good as most people thought they were coming into the season. Romo is OK, but he’s not a winner. He’s a pretty boy who should spend more time studying the playbook and less time studying the mirror. But the Cowboys are good enough to handle a bad Denver team with little hope of a playoff run. Dallas still has hopes of making the playoffs, where they will of course lose the first game, but they desperately need a win. America’s Team rolls: Cowboys -3.

Green Bay at Minnesota

I considered using my executive veto to overrule the system and exclude this game from the picks. There’s no way any system can configure enough numerical data to accommodate all the emotional story lines in this matchup, and like my mother always told me, “’Mo” is important. Which team has ‘Mo? Right now it’s Minnesota. Quarterback fairy tales aside, Minnesota has a better running game and a better defense. That usually adds up to a “W.” There’s always the risk that Favre gets a little too determined to create victory and throws a half dozen picks – but if he just hands the ball off to AP, the Vikings will roll at home: Minnesota -3.5.

MAIL BAG

Let’s see what some of Jimmy the Geek’s loyal fans and readers had to say this week:

Dear Jimmy,

If the Giants lose, I’m comin’ for you, Book Boy.

- M.

M.: Lose at Tampa Bay? Yeah right. Like that could ever happen. And you’ve got another lock at Arrowhead this week. Eli is the next Peyton, except he’ll have rings (plural) to boot.

Dear Jimmy,

I’m in a Last Man Standing (survivor) pool. Can you help me with my picks?

- F.

Last man standing pools are for suckers. It’s just a bunch of morons throwing money in a pile so some dork who knows nothing about football can get lucky and pay off his credit cards. If you have any sense at all, you’ll avoid pools and make bets against the spread like a real man

PS: I took the Colts. Mama needs a new pair of shoes.

Dear Jimmy,

Can you tell us more about The System?

- S.

S.: This system is a pot of freakin’ gold, and you think I’m going to spill it out right here for all you leeches to suck dry? You’re a moron. Never write to me again.

But I will tell you this: Unlike some of my past systems that all proved unsuccessful eventually, this one is based more on numbers. So it’s numerical, which is like scientific, and it uses computers. Well, it uses just one computer really, but it has lots of complicated formulas and functions and things. I’ve said too much already. Don’t look behind the curtain. Just win, baby.

* For entertainment purposes only. Avoid gambling where prohibited.

* If you think need help, consider www.gamblersanonymous.org