Beating the Bookie

Fri, Oct 16, 2009

2009, Week 6

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IN THE BLACK

For most people, an 8-4 week after a lackluster .500 start would be a cause for celebration, a chance to pick up some cabbage and blow it on frivolous things before the next weekend even begins. For someone with an unhealthy obsession on winning (and wings), it’s a chance to snuggle up with a bucket of ranch dressing and figure out what went wrong in our four losers.

First, let’s get to the rundown. We opened the weekend 12-12 overall, so at a dime a bet, we’re down $1,200.

REVIEW

Regular Picks: 6-4

TWINNERs: 2-0

Week total: 8-4 (+ $3,600)

So far this season: + $2,400.

Things we won’t whine about:

Picking Florida on Friday then finding out before game time that Tebow is going to start after all.
Losing NFL games to Kyle Orton and Chad Henne. Ouch.

So far this week, our TWINNERs are 1-1 with the first TWINNER loss of the year coming last night with South Florida.

SATURDAY

Now that we’re back in the black and we have a couple of dimes to play with, we’ve reached the time of the season when lesser players begin to run out of brains and/or money and start falling off the wagon. Your bookie’s pockets are loaded, so it’s a perfect time for a hot streak.

“You never win a game unless you beat the guy in front of you. …You’ve got to win the war with the man in front of you. You’ve got to get your man.”

- Vince Lombardi

Oklahoma vs Texas (from Dallas) – Noon ET, ABC

So far this year, these teams are combined 2-7 against the spread with only one win each. Yikes. Many think this game will decide who gets to play the SEC champ in the BCS title game, but what most people think in October usually turns out wrong. Sooner QB Sam Bradford returned last week after two weeks injured to lead Oklahoma to a comfortable yet lackluster win over Baylor. Vegas has the Longhorns as a 3-point, neutral-field favorite. That’s way too low. Oklahoma is not nearly as big and strong up front as they were last year. They’ve lost two games, so national championship hopes are out the window. With a lot still on the table to play for, Texas rolls: Take the Longhorns -3.

Iowa at Wisconsin – Noon ET, ESPN

In 2002, Head Coach Kirk Ferentz led the Hawkeyes to an 11-1 season and a share of the Big 10 title. NFL coaching rumors were rampant, and the school locked Ferentz in with a huge, long-term contract. They’ve pretty much sucked ever since, and Kirk’s job opportunity phone isn’t ringing very often these days. Last week, we told you Michigan was better than Iowa, and the 8-point dogs won outright. Well, Wisconsin is also better than Iowa – take the Badgers -2.5.

Mississippi St. at Middle Tennessee St. – 12:30 PM ET (**** DOUBLE-DOWN LOCK ****)

I usually like to stick to the bigger games so you can maximize your enjoyment by watching your winners live on national television, but every now and then a lesser game comes around with a point spread so wrong that The System simply demands we throw down on it. The MTSU Blue Raiders have looked impressive in a couple of games this year, and they’ll have their game faces on for an SEC opponent Saturday. But Dan Mullen has found an offense from amid the rubble left by Sylvester Croom in Starkville, and Mississippi State will win this one going away: Bulldogs -4.5

USC at Notre Dame – 3:30 PM ET, NBC

My, my, my. Little Jimmy Clausen has pranced his way into the Heisman talk, and Notre Dame sits at 4-1 ranked 25^th in the nation. Lou Holtz would probably crown them today if he had the chance. What a joke. Notre Dame is a bad football team. Their defense is terrible. Their offense has flash but won’t stand a chance against USC. Charley Weiss has been terrible since day 1, and that won’t change on Saturday. This one will be over by the second quarter. Go Trojans: -10.

Kentucky at Auburn

Auburn broke our hearts last week by getting walloped at Arkansas, but the Tigers return to the friendly confines of Jordan-Hare stadium Saturday, where they pack a powerful offensive punch. That should be enough to power them past the Wildcats. Any reason Kentucky might have had to give it their all this year has been buried under a pile of losses. Take the Tigers -13.5.

SUNDAY

This is a tough Sunday for the system. Several teams that have appeared downright awful are starting to show signs of life. Detroit and Kansas City have both climbed up to the “looking good in defeat” stage. So who is out there we can count on for a loss? Who is left that is so bad that, no matter how hard they try, they will never do anything but suck and lose and get beaten every time they take the field? I’ll tell you who – Jamarcus Russell.

Carolina at Tampa Bay

Tampa is bad, really bad. But they’re not bad enough to lose every game. This should be the week they mark one down in the win column: Take the points at home – Bucs +3.5

New York at New Orleans

New York has covered for us three straight weeks in fairly convincing fashion. This week, the Giants find themselves getting three and a half at offensive powerhouse New Orleans. Eli’s heel is still a little dinged up, but he didn’t get enough of a workout last week to matter. He should be fresh, and the Giants are the better team in this one. We’ll keep riding this train until it stops: Giants +3.

Philly at Oakland

Sit down, Ryan Leaf. Jamarcus Russell will go down in history as the worst quarterback ever selected at or even near the top of the NFL draft. This guy was not very good in college, and he’s even worse in the NFL. And the cast of characters around him is just as bad as he is. Assistant coaches fighting in the locker roomand an owner that should be a character on the Simpsons… Oakland is bad. Lay the points on the road: Philly -14.

Chicago at Atlanta (Sunday night)

Dome, sweet Dome for the Falcons as they welcome the Chicago Bears to the Georgia Dome for a Sunday night special. Atlanta has managed to hide most of their holes on defense, but Cutler has the cannon to expose most of them. The Falcon’s big-play machine was in fine form last week at San Fran, so we look for both of these teams to move the ball. At the end, Atlanta simply has more weapons: Falcons -3.5.

Denver at San Diego

Just six weeks into the season, and Denver has a strangle-hold in the AFC west at an amazing 5-0. At 2-2, the Chargers are standing in Bronco dust and wondering what happened to the division lead. Denver doesn’t need this game, surprisingly enough, and they’re coming off a huge emotional win at home over the Patriots last week. I smell a letdown. Take the Chargers -3.5.

Back home this weekend

After a nice trek through the North Carolina foliage last weekend, I’m back where I belong for game day this week: In the delicious ass-groove of my couch with wings and ranch in reach. Stay in touch with game day hilarity and easy-money TWINNERs by following Jimmy_Geek on Twitter. Let’s go do some winning.