Beating the Bookie

Wed, Oct 28, 2009

2009, Week 8

What’s the worst that could happen?

On Saturday, my beloved Crimson Tide was the FIVE-STAR TRIPLE-DOWN GOLD PLATED LOCK OF THE YEAR giving up 15 at home against hated Tennessee. The FIVE-STAR TRIPLE-DOWN GOLD PLATED LOCK OF THE YEAR has never lost. Never.

It was a defensive battle throughout, and Alabama’s offense couldn’t get it going against Tennessee’s stout D, but a late cover appeared in reach as the Crimson Tide led 12-3 with the ball and about three and a half minutes left. All we needed to do was give the ball to Mark Ingram and let him march down the field for the late touchdown and the sweet, sweet cover.

Of course, the announcers HAVE to point out several times that Mark Ingram has never lost a fumble. They keep saying it over and over. Three hundred and something carries and he’s never lost a fumble. Never lost a fumble. You know, Mark Ingram has NEVER LOST A FUMBLE. My God, will you shut up about it? But it was too late. The jinx was on. For the first time in his college career, Mark Ingram lost a fumble. And of all people, it was Eric Berry who knocked the ball loose.

Tennessee recovered, scored a quick touchdown, and kicked the inevitable onsides kick that should have ended it. But we missed it, and they recovered. So in just 10 short minutes, I’ve gone from a comfortable win with a cover in sight to a total collapse that has me staring down the barrel of a loss to Tennessee with hopes for another perfect season and a 13^th national championship dangling in the balance. It took a blocked field goal from Terrance “Mount” Cody – who came right up through the one hole and blew two linemen backwards to block the kick with his armpit.

“I didn’t really get off the ground,” Cody said. “I just reached my arm up. That’s how I got it. I knocked (the blocker) back. He was on his back.”

As if that drama weren’t enough, Sunday’s opening stanza had my winning hopes pinned squarely on Brett Favre. The cover was seldom in doubt. It was back and forth all the way, but the five point cushion had us comfortable through most of the game. It came down to one drive, one chance for Favre to pull yet another miracle, but it doesn’t matter, because we’ve got five points and the ball. With mere seconds remaining, what’s the worst that could happen? Well, we found out, didn’t we? Favre threw an interception returned 82 yards for a touchdown (after having a fumble returned 77 yards earlier in the game).

That’s gambling.

Luckily, the TWINNERs continued to be SMOKIN’ HOT, so if you follow me on Twitter, you managed to break even for the weekend, minus the juice of course.

TWINNERs: 3-0 (Rutgers, Iowa, Miss St.) – That’s 8-3 on the year!

FIVE-STAR TRIPLE-DOWN GOLD PLATED LOCK OF THE YEAR: 0-1 (Tripled up = -3!)

NFL: 2-2 (Blame stupid Favre)

TOTAL for the week: 5-5 (-$500)

Season total: -$7500

We’ve got him right where we want him

Slump? I ain’t in no slump… I just ain’t hitting.
– Yogi Berra

The college season is more than half done, so we’ve seen enough from each of these teams to know pretty much where they stand. The System is packed full of data from the current year, having flushed through all the holdover tags and trends from last year. Most of the Joes you know have gotten “too busy to fool with it” any more, meaning they’ve lost their asses, and their wives (or husbands) won’t let them gamble any more. But we’re hanging in there, ready for the inevitable hot streak.

HALLOWINNERS

Strange things will happen this Hallows eve. We should win enough on Saturday to put 10-spots in all the little trick-or-treaters’ candy sacks, except for those stupid teenagers who are way too old and show up with some lazy, terrible costume like a pillowcase and some stick they found in my yard. Those idiots get a single Peanut Butter Log from me, and it’s usually chipped.

But on Saturday, I’m already pumped about laying up with some of my favorite Halloween spirits, a bucket of wings, an extra large ranch dressing, and watching about 14 straight hours of college football. Even the dirty, “you should be spending Halloween with your kids, you ass!” looks from my wife won’t get me down. Have a look at these winners Jimmy hand-picked just for you:

Ole Miss at Auburn (+4.5) – SEC TV, Noon ET.
Just a few weeks ago, I noticed a sign I failed to heed: Auburn fans were starting to talk about scenarios that might get them into the SEC championship game. We all should have seen this losing streak coming when Auburn’s early successes came against some of the worst defenses in college football.

This week, Ole Miss comes to town, and for some reason, Ole Miss fans have hated Auburn ever since the Tigers had the AUdacity to hire Tommy Tuberville away from Ole Miss, the only SEC team that Auburn beat the year before. Go figure. You beat one team, and that’s the coach you go hire. Well done, Bobby.

Ole Miss is not a top-5 team, as said before the bandwagon was deserted, but they’re much more like the good teams that Auburn has struggled against this year. The downslide continues: Take the Rebels -4.5.

Indiana at Iowa (-17.5) – ESPN, Noon ET
Iowa remains the least respected undefeated teams from major conferences. They’re playing for respect at home against a truly bad football team. This one should be over early: Take the Hawkeyes -17.5.

Cincinnati at Syracuse (+15) – ESPNU, Noon eastern
Cincinnati is another undefeated team that keeps hearing they’re not good enough to play for the title. The only thing they can do to prove the college football world wrong is to keep going out and smashing the lesser teams. Syracuse is the epitome of a lesser team. The Bearcats roll again this week -15.

Michigan at Illinois (+7) – ABC or ESPN2, 3:30 eastern
The Rod continues his efforts to build Michigan up even as a letter of inquiry from the NCAA arrives in Ann Arbor. It seems some players have complained about having to practice too much. This is Big 10 Football. Go play “intermurals,” brother.

But does anybody wear out a welcome faster than Ron Zook? Remember FireRonZook.com opening up the day he was hired at Florida? They finally ran him off to Illinois, where after some early flash, he’s managed to run that program totally into the toilet. In this battle of embattled programs, Michigan comes out the winner. Better defense + better quarterback + better running game = cover. Wolverines -7.5.

Georgia Tech at Vanderbilt (+11.5) – CSS, 7:30 eastern
Bobby Johnson has Tech fans jacked about the program. His triple-option spread attack is unlike any other offense in the ACC or Vandy’s SEC, and teams have trouble preparing for it in just one week. Vandy won’t be ready for it, and Tech will march all over them. Take the Jackets -11.5.

SUNDAY

The big boys come out to play on Sunday. That’s true for the gridiron as well as the sports books. More money is wagered on the NFL than any other sport, and this year, big favorites have been covering the spread at a record clip, making it one of the worst years in memory for sports books.

So what do we do? We kick ‘em while they’re down.

San Francisco at Indianapolis (-13) *****DOUBLE-DOWN LOCK*****
Vegas needs to rewrite their formulas for point spreads on Sir Peyton. I love Singletary and hopes he fares well, but he’s outmatched on Indy’s home turf. Take the Colts -13, and get it in quick, because this number will probably get bigger.

Carolina at Arizona (-10)
Carolina has whipped some bad teams to scratch their way back to respectability, but Arizona is a hell of a football team. They played in the Super Bowl last year. They just went to New York and beat the Giants. This is a long road trip for Carolina. They’re far from home and outmatched by a long shot: Cards -10

Atlanta at New Orleans (-10)
Atlanta is my home team, and I love them dearly, but this is one of those games in which, as a life-long Falcons fan, you can just see the ass-whipping on its way. Our secondary is a weakness, and New Orleans has a pretty decent passing attack. As much as I hate to say it, this one’s a blowout. Take the Saints -10.