Beating the Bookie

Thu, Nov 19, 2009

2009, Week 11

The plot thickens in Knoxville, and Auburn has new trouble to deal with. Alabama beat LSU to continue its unbeaten march toward a Rose Bowl appearance and a shot at the national title, and I picked a whole slew of winners this past weekend. Does it get any better than this? Only if it’s fried and dipped in ranch.

Tennessee head coach Lane Kiffin did the right thing and kicked the two primary armed robbery suspects off the team. It’s unclear what will happen to the third player involved in the incident or the woman allegedly driving the getaway Prius.

On November 11, the day before the robbery, Kiffin addressed the media and praised his program for not having an off-field incident in the 11 months he had been at the helm. Really? Since then, we’ve also learned that another Volunteer football player, Nyshier Oliver, was arrested four days earlier – on Nov. 7 – for shoplifting a $110 shirt just a few hours before the Memphis game, during which Oliver was taken off the dress team. Is it possible that Kiffin didn’t know about this incident, or was he simply lying to make himself look good during the press conference?

In the Loveliest Village on the Plains, Auburn running back Eric Smith is being sued by an Auburn student for all sorts of troubles allegedly stemming from a fight at a hotel near campus in August. Following the incident, Smith was suspended for two and a half weeks – including the first game of the season – before being reinstated to the team.

Smith and Auburn aren’t saying much about the case, but the plaintiff filed suit in federal court this week claiming that Smith crossed a parking lot and struck the plaintiff in the back of the head – rendering him unconscious – with four police officers as witnesses. There is reportedly video footage available, although nothing official has been released. It doesn’t look good for Smith early on, and the mother of the victim has been on the radio this week ripping Auburn’s coaching staff and administration for the way they handled the matter.

All this while Alabama keeps winning and winning and winning.

And then Sunday, I couldn’t have asked for a better day, going 4-1 on my NFL picks and walking away with full pockets from a day on the boat watching my winners on The Man’s beautiful new TV. If not for the fact that my previous week’s losses paid for it, it would have been just about perfect.

THE RUNDOWN

We started last week early with a split on Friday (1-1), then Saturday was a little better as we closed with two big winners for a 3-2 finish. The aforementioned 4-1 Sunday – our best Sunday of the year – followed with a horrible loser Monday night as the Browns were getting 10.5 and lost 16-0 to the Ravens. It was probably one of the most painful bets I’ve ever had to watch as the pathetic Browns offense kept trying to find a way to muster some points, but it was clear we had no chance without some sort of fluke runback or interception return or something.

All in all, that’s 8-5 for the week: +$2,500 including the commission on the losses, improving our yearly total to -$12,200. Is it just me, or does that number look incredibly lucky? I think it’s a sign, a sign to go big this weekend.

FRIDAY

There’s a three-game slate coming up tonight, but only one game caused enough sparks in The System to generate a play: Big favorite Boise State goes on the road to a struggling Utah State team. Look for the Broncos to pull away late, but Utah St. keeps it close. Take the Aggies +23.5.

SATURDAY

Minnesota at Iowa
Minnesota has lost some heartbreakers and some blowouts this year, but they’ve also found success against some good teams. Iowa has struggled of late, especially since the loss of a starting QB Ricky Stanzi to a sprained ankle. Ricky was famous for not losing the number, but the Hawkeyes haven’t covered since, and it won’t happen this week either. Iowa may end up with the Floyd of Rosedale hog trophy given in this border rivalry each year, but Take the Gophers +10.

Mississippi St. vs Arkansas
Two teams that started the season with a little hope and find their seasons ending with different results. Ole Miss fans still think Nutt is the man for the job, and Bulldog fans have seen enough of Dan Mullen to know their program is headed in the right direction. Look for the offenses to be on display Saturday. It’s a big number, but we’re going to take the over in this one: OVER 60.5.

Florida International at Florida
There should be little of interest in this game except the payoff. We’re going to keep our undefeated college “under” streak alive from Gaineville: Take UNDER 54.

Oklahoma at Texas Tech
Generally overrated Big 12 offenses have lead to some inflated numbers this year, and this game is no different. We’re gonna play the smart side: UNDER 53.

TCU at Wyoming
TCU continues its assault on the BCS with stout defensive play. They should be able to stop a weak Wyoming team consistently enough to secure another UNDER 47.5 in this matchup.

LSU vs Ole Miss
The under train keeps rolling as the SEC defenses start tightening the leash around banged up offenses. Look for this one to stay under the number as well: UNDER 42.5.

Kansas vs Texas
When the dead horse pays money, we beat the hell out of it. So we’re going to keep playing the under in this Big 12 matchup. These teams can score, so this number will probably get bigger by game time. But it’s big enough as it is: UNDER 57.5.

SUNDAY

It’s belt tightening time in the NFL. The playoff picture is still somewhat unsettled, but teams can now see most of what it’s going to take to get there: Wins. Some teams can cruise but need to try to lock down home field advantage, others are staring at must-win games just to make the dance.

What happens with things get tight like this? Games get tighter. Defenses buckle down. Offenses struggle more. Games are closer and lower scoring that the general betting public expects. The System has adjusted to accommodate this trending and has produced another batch of tasty dogs and under for your Sunday winning enjoyment: