Rotoholics.com

“Come to daddy on the inside straight, well I got no chance of losin’ this time.”
- Loser (Garcia/Hunter)

When the geniuses here at rotoholics.com first asked me to write something for the website, I wasn’t sure I had much to offer. I’ve never participated in any sort of fantasy football, and honestly, I like college football more than the NFL.

But when I found out that a lot of Fantasy players also like to make a friendly wager or two from time to time, the wheels began turning.

I like to bet on sports. A lot. I like to play a lot of games and take mostly favorites. I love parlays, turns & teasers and taking big risks chasing big payoffs. In short, I’m a bookie’s dream. In fact, if I had any money at all to gamble with, I’d probably have people lined up outside my door just for a shot at some of my action.

But let’s face it – this isn’t college anymore. I’m on my own dime now, so gone are the days of scraping by on Ramen Noodles and Hamburger Helper for days after a big loss. I’m no longer able to let a whole weekend’s losses ride on a Monday night parlay only to lose and chase a midnight card game for one last shot at a rally.

Not anymore, my friends. No more losing for me, because Jimmy’s got a new system. Giddy up.

That’s right, after years of consistent losses, I’ve think I’ve finally figured this thing out, and I’m going to turn it around right here before your very eyes on rotoholics.com. So tune in every Friday to see me put my money where my mouth is. I’ll use my new system to pick out a few sure fire winners for the Saturday and Sunday games, and we’ll keep track of how we’re doing as the year progresses.

This Week’s College Locks

“Show me a good loser, and I’ll show you a loser.”
- Vince Lombardi

 Take it to the bank. I’ve looked over the college games, and some of these lines are too good to be true.

I mean, usually the guys in Vegas do a great job setting lines, but I see spreads coming out this week that clearly didn’t take into account all the things I use in my new system. So let’s roll:

South Florida. +14 at FSU

I admit it – I bought into the BYU hype and thought the Seminoles had no chance last week, but Bobby pulled one out of his hat in Provo. Does that mean Florida State is back? They lost to Miami, but maybe that loss isn’t so bad after all. But I’m not buying it. FSU had a huge win on the road last week. Look for the letdown game this week and take S. Florida plus the 14. Lock it down.

LSU -13 at Mississippi St.

LSU’s offense is starting to gel. Mississippi State can move the ball but has no defense. Look for a back-and-forth shootout that may stay close through three quarters, but LSU is too big and strong for this young team under the Tebow’s former offensive coordinator, Dan Mullen, who is trying to take his version Urban’s spread attack to Starkville. Take the Tigers and lay the points. Book it.

Miami -3 at Virginia Tech

Before the season started, most of us saw Miami’s brutal opening schedule and thought 2-2 would be a great start. But now, with two quality wins under their belts over Florida State and Georgia Tech, a red-hot Jacory Harris has the ‘Caines talking about Heisman trophies and national championships. After an opening loss to Alabama, Virginia Tech has rebounded with a cake walk over Marshall and a big home win over Nebraska last week, but they’re no match for Miami. Who knows –we could be headed for a rematch of the 1992 Alabama-Miami national championship game, aka “The Day Gino Toretta’s Football Career Ended.” Take Miami and lay the three on the road, and go ahead and write the “W” beside it right now.

Florida – 21.5 at Kentucky

Kentucky is no good. They barely beat Louisville, home of the vicious-toothed Cardinals (yes, their mean old red-bird mascot actually has snarling teeth for some reason). Florida ran into an orange buzz saw last week when Tennessee shocked everyone by not getting totally destroyed in Gainesville. Urban blamed the flu for his lackluster performance, which prompted Lane Kiffin to pop off and say that he was going to wait until his team played badly and then blame it on the flu. This guy may be good for the SEC after all, even though I still hate Tennessee.

And Tebow was in rare form with his head bobbing up and down in that odd way it always does when he gets really fired up and starts shouting motivation and spittle at his teammates. Florida usually follows a weak performance with a big trouncing the next week, so I think they’ll have this covered by halftime. Blow it up: Gaters -21.5. Put that one in ink.

Notre Dame -7 at Purdue

 Notre Dame is terrible. I can’t remember the last time they won a meaningful game. It’s sad that in 10 years of Irish football, the only thing they have to brag about is playing some good teams close but losing anyway. How sad. At what point will they wake up and realize their coach is a clown? Not this Saturday. I’d take just about anyone getting seven at home against Notre Dame, and that includes the Boilermakers. I might go ahead and start writing post-dated checks on this easy money.*

Washington +8 at Stanford

Oh my gosh, are you kidding me? These line-making idiots apparently missed it last week when Washington embarrassed mighty USC. And now they’re getting points at what, Stanford? To his credit, Jim Harbaugh has done a good job of taking Stanford from the very bottom of the Pac-10 to some place just barely above the very bottom of the Pac-10. But this Sarkesian guy in Washington is genius. He learned under Pete Carroll, so I don’t expect a let-down after last week’s big win, especially on the road against a bottom-tier Pac-10 team. This one is easy money. Washington wins this game straight up. I don’t even need the points, but we might as well take them: Huskies +8. Book it. 

This Week’s NFL Locks

“There’s no ‘I’ in ‘team,’ but there is one in ‘Win.’”
- Brett Favre

 Quite frankly, it’s tougher to beat the man playing NFL games. The lines are tighter. The teams are more evenly matched, and there are only 32 of them so Vegas can keep a pretty tight watch on everything. Luckily, I’ve reviewed all the factors that create big winners, and crunched the numbers through my new system, and I found four plays this weekend that are just too good to be true. So let’s take it to The Man.

Cleveland +13.5 at Baltimore

Baltimore is off to a good start and Cleveland is terrible. So a lesser man might predict a blowout here. Not so fast, my friend. Baltimore just wrapped up a long, cross-country road trip last week to San Diego for a hard fought win over the Chargers. I expect them to come out flat and jet-lagged and let Cleveland stay in the game. This will be a low scoring, miserable game to watch. The Ravens win 13-6 or some such. You might even want to parlay this with the under, which is also a lock, but definitely take the Browns plus 13.5 and book it.

Jacksonville +4 at Houston

Just about everything that was good in Jacksonville has moved to Atlanta. Houston, on the other hand, is led by former Falcon Matt Schaub, whose Virginia Cavaliers are fast becoming the laughing stock of the ACC. How much longer will Jim Groh last if he keeps losing to high school teams? No matter. Jacksonville’s team is as bad as the smell that permeates the city. Take the Texans minus the four.

NY Giants -7 at Tampa Bay

Mike will probably break out in a cold sweat the minute he begins reading this. It may not even make it to print. But the Giants could start the backups and rout Tampa Bay. I mean, have you seen Byron Leftwich lately? He looks like a giant tackling dummy standing back there throwing the ball. I’m shocked every time he gathers the mobility needed for a three-step drop, much less getting out of the way of the Giants’ pass rush. Eli has been on the mark this year, there’s no way Tampa Bay scores more than nine points, and the Giants win big. Lay the seven and book it: Giants, baby.

San Fran +7 at Minnesota

Let’s face it, most of you don’t have Adrian Peterson and would absolutely love to see Mike Singletary and the 49’ers come in and shut him down. Well, I can’t promise that, but I do think it’s about time Favre lit the up the board with five or six mysteriously horrible interceptions. I like what Singletary has going on in the Bay area, and I think this is the week they give the Vikings a run for their money. Take the seven and San Fran.