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Wondering what to do with this year’s worst draft position? Join the crowd…

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As Patrick McGoohan said in the Prisoner: I am not a number, I am a free man!

I wish.

To be honest, I feel absolutely trapped in this year’s draft…saddled with the worst possible pick: Number 5.

Millions of fantasy football players right now are shaking their heads as they read this, mumbling “you got that right, brother.”

So this is for all those who have yet to draft their fantasy team and are scratching their heads wondering just what the hell they’re supposed to do with numero cinco.

GOING, GOING…

More than likely, these four guys will be gone by the time you pick:

• Adrian Peterson
• Matt Forte
• Michael Turner
• Maurice Jones-Drew

(and not necessarily in that order)

THE BEST OF WHAT’S AROUND…

That said, let’s take a look at your options…

LaDanian Tomlinson

• Pro: I alluded to him in last week’s column and mentioned how much I like him and that, despite the risk, there is just about as much upside as anyone in the draft. Unlike Westbrook (who, healthy or not, is going to see limited touches to keep the wheels from falling off), I think the Chargers are going to ride a healthy LaDanian. Even LT knows his days are numbered – he’s entering his 30s and the (likely) downside of his career. Personally, I think he gives everything he’s got and (barring injury) throws out some monster numbers.
• Con: Yeah, that whole “barring injury” thing? That’s a pretty big variable. There’s a lot of mileage on those legs. People are making a lot of noise about Michael Turner’s 370 carries last year. Well, Tomlinson has over 3,100 career regular season touches. This guy could pull a hammy the next time he squats on the crapper.
• The bottom line: The guy had over 1,500 total yards and 12 TDs in a down year. If you’re thinking RB in the first round, you could do a lot worse. And even if he flops early on, he’s still strong trade bait, because you know someone will still be enamored with that “dang’it… if he can just get healthy” potential.

DeAngelo Williams

A week ago, I probably don’t consider him for this conversation. However…

• Pros: The dude can run. Is that enough? No? Okay, well how about this: Jonathan Stewart hurt his Achilles tendon (never a good thing to hurt when your job is to run a lot… that would be like me spraining one of my two typing fingers. I shudder even thinking about it) and has missed over two weeks of preseason practices/games. Stewart had 10 rushing TDs last year, so if he can’t play, don’t think Williams can’t handle the expanded role and successfully convert the extra goal line work.
• Cons: There is a good possibility that Stewart will step up, eventually. I don’t think that he’ll be ready for the opener, despite what people are saying – and even if he is, you don’t rush a guy with an Achilles injury back. But at some point, it’s back to a two back system for Carolina.
• Bottom line: A platooning Williams is still better than most guys. And guys with bad Achilles don’t bounce back well.

One of the Big Four WRs

Originally, I wrote “Larry Fitzgerald” here, but changed it. Frankly, the more and more I think about it, the more I’m not so sure he’s the top receiver. I mean, it’s a close race and I don’t think you can go wrong with any one of the Big Four (Fitz, the Johnsons and Moss)… but take a look at this:

• Player A: 214 receptions, 2,992 yards and 20 TDs
• Player B: 221 receptions, 2,827 yards and 23 TDs

Player A is Larry Fitzgerald and Player B is Anquan Boldin. These are their respective numbers over the course of the past three regular seasons when playing together. So, you could potentially grab someone like Williams, Turner (if he drops) or LT in the first round and then Anquan in Round 2/Round 3 (depending on how many teams are in your league) and (theoretically) get almost identical numbers to Larry.

[Note: So, why isn’t Boldin among the top tier receivers, then? Because he, too, is a big injury risk… having played in only 12 games in each of the past two seasons. Oh, and he’s got hamstring issues this preseason.]

• Pro WR at #5: Look, as good as Boldin, Jennings, et al are., they’re not top tier. If you have your heart set on the best  WRs the draft can offer, you’re almost guaranteed to miss out if you pass in the first round. Hell, I’m in an eight team league and I’m almost positive none of them will be there for the 12th pick.
• Cons: If you go WR here, you should still be able to get a solid RB in the second round (think Brandon Jacobs, Clinton Portis, etc.); however, after that, your second RB is going to most likely suck.
• Bottom Line: There’s also the “it’s too early to get a receiver at 5” idea. I think that’s a load of crap, by the way. In a draft loaded with uncertainties, you need to go with your gut and grab who you want – even if it’s a little early. I got killed last year because I waited too long to go WR, and I will not let that happen this year – whether it’s a top tier at 5 or second tier at 12.

Drew Brees

• Pros: Brees is primed for a tremendous season and seems almost too good to pass up on in the first round. Also, consider this: Brees is the ONLY player in NFL history with at least 4,400 yards passing and 26 touchdown passes in three straight seasons.
• Cons: “Primed for a tremendous season and seems almost too good to pass up on in the first round.” Yeah, that’s what we thought about Tom Brady last year. [Of course, you can’t compare people like that, but don’t tell me it’s not in the back of your mind.]
• Bottom line: Forget what I said before – it’s just too darned early to pick a QB at #5. There’s enough QB talent later on and too much need to fill your primary RB/WR needs up front. So, I say no.

[Note: Oh, and don’t you dare even think about taking Brady in the first round this year. Like everyone else, I was hot on him and still think he’s got a huge season ahead. But his injury this past week (to his throwing shoulder, no less) has me scared enough to steer clear. And I know… Belichick said he didn’t take him out of the game because of the injury. I feel so much better now… because Bill’s usually so honest about these things.

Peterson, Forte, Jones-Drew, Turner

What if one of the aforementioned four “sure things” doesn’t go 1-4?

Well, there’s no chance in hell that Peterson falls past two (much less 1). Forte’s stock continues to rise. If he somehow slips to 5 and you don’t take him, you need to quit your league immediately. Jones-Drew? I know, I know… he’s a continual fantasy disappointment. But how many RBs are going to get all of their team’s carries, including goal line opportunities, and have youth on their side? You can’t pass him up.

Turner?

(Sigh)

Sure, some people love him, so I can’t tell you not to. But I will tell you this: not me. I’m staying away. Something’s not right about that little fat f**ker.

SO, WHO WILL I TAKE?

I don’t know.

Honestly, I’m still processing. It’s going to be hard not to scoop up LT if he’s on the board, but I am enamored with the Big Four WRs. It’s 50-50 at this point.

All I know for sure is that next year, I better get a better draft spot. Something really sexy and in a position of power.

Like #6.

A guy can dream, can’t he?