Tennessee head coach Lane Kiffin did the right thing and kicked the two primary armed robbery suspects off the team. It’s unclear what will happen to the third player involved in the incident or the woman allegedly driving the getaway Prius.

On November 11, the day before the robbery, Kiffin addressed the media and praised his program for not having an off-field incident in the 11 months he had been at the helm. Really? Since then, we’ve also learned that another Volunteer football player, Nyshier Oliver, was arrested four days earlier – on Nov. 7 – for shoplifting a $110 shirt just a few hours before the Memphis game, during which Oliver was taken off the dress team. Is it possible that Kiffin didn’t know about this incident, or was he simply lying to make himself look good during the press conference?

In the Loveliest Village on the Plains, Auburn running back Eric Smith is being sued by an Auburn student for all sorts of troubles allegedly stemming from a fight at a hotel near campus in August. Following the incident, Smith was suspended for two and a half weeks – including the first game of the season – before being reinstated to the team.

Smith and Auburn aren’t saying much about the case, but the plaintiff filed suit in federal court this week claiming that Smith crossed a parking lot and struck the plaintiff in the back of the head – rendering him unconscious – with four police officers as witnesses. There is reportedly video footage available, although nothing official has been released. It doesn’t look good for Smith early on, and the mother of the victim has been on the radio this week ripping Auburn’s coaching staff and administration for the way they handled the matter.

All this while Alabama keeps winning and winning and winning.

And then Sunday, I couldn’t have asked for a better day, going 4-1 on my NFL picks and walking away with full pockets from a day on the boat watching my winners on The Man’s beautiful new TV. If not for the fact that my previous week’s losses paid for it, it would have been just about perfect.

THE RUNDOWN

We started last week early with a split on Friday (1-1), then Saturday was a little better as we closed with two big winners for a 3-2 finish. The aforementioned 4-1 Sunday – our best Sunday of the year – followed with a horrible loser Monday night as the Browns were getting 10.5 and lost 16-0 to the Ravens. It was probably one of the most painful bets I’ve ever had to watch as the pathetic Browns offense kept trying to find a way to muster some points, but it was clear we had no chance without some sort of fluke runback or interception return or something.

All in all, that’s 8-5 for the week: +$2,500 including the commission on the losses, improving our yearly total to -$12,200. Is it just me, or does that number look incredibly lucky? I think it’s a sign, a sign to go big this weekend.

FRIDAY

There’s a three-game slate coming up tonight, but only one game caused enough sparks in The System to generate a play: Big favorite Boise State goes on the road to a struggling Utah State team. Look for the Broncos to pull away late, but Utah St. keeps it close. Take the Aggies +23.5.

SATURDAY

Minnesota at Iowa
Minnesota has lost some heartbreakers and some blowouts this year, but they’ve also found success against some good teams. Iowa has struggled of late, especially since the loss of a starting QB Ricky Stanzi to a sprained ankle. Ricky was famous for not losing the number, but the Hawkeyes haven’t covered since, and it won’t happen this week either. Iowa may end up with the Floyd of Rosedale hog trophy given in this border rivalry each year, but Take the Gophers +10.

Mississippi St. vs Arkansas
Two teams that started the season with a little hope and find their seasons ending with different results. Ole Miss fans still think Nutt is the man for the job, and Bulldog fans have seen enough of Dan Mullen to know their program is headed in the right direction. Look for the offenses to be on display Saturday. It’s a big number, but we’re going to take the over in this one: OVER 60.5.

Florida International at Florida
There should be little of interest in this game except the payoff. We’re going to keep our undefeated college “under” streak alive from Gaineville: Take UNDER 54.

Oklahoma at Texas Tech
Generally overrated Big 12 offenses have lead to some inflated numbers this year, and this game is no different. We’re gonna play the smart side: UNDER 53.

TCU at Wyoming
TCU continues its assault on the BCS with stout defensive play. They should be able to stop a weak Wyoming team consistently enough to secure another UNDER 47.5 in this matchup.

LSU vs Ole Miss
The under train keeps rolling as the SEC defenses start tightening the leash around banged up offenses. Look for this one to stay under the number as well: UNDER 42.5.

Kansas vs Texas
When the dead horse pays money, we beat the hell out of it. So we’re going to keep playing the under in this Big 12 matchup. These teams can score, so this number will probably get bigger by game time. But it’s big enough as it is: UNDER 57.5.

SUNDAY

It’s belt tightening time in the NFL. The playoff picture is still somewhat unsettled, but teams can now see most of what it’s going to take to get there: Wins. Some teams can cruise but need to try to lock down home field advantage, others are staring at must-win games just to make the dance.

What happens with things get tight like this? Games get tighter. Defenses buckle down. Offenses struggle more. Games are closer and lower scoring that the general betting public expects. The System has adjusted to accommodate this trending and has produced another batch of tasty dogs and under for your Sunday winning enjoyment:

• Buffalo +8.5 at Jacksonville
• Kansas City +10 vs Pittsburgh
• Falcons +6.5 at New York Giants
• Seattle & Minnesota UNDER 46.5
• Tampa Bay & New Orleans UNDER 51
• Patriots & Jets UNDER 45
• Chicago +3 vs Philadelphia

As a rabid Crimson Tide fan, few things fluff my dander like trouble in Knoxville, and this one is just too good to pass up. According to reports, three freshmen Tennessee players were charged with attempted robbery Thursday morning after an incident at a gas station near the campus in Knoxville, the sphincter of the South.

The three victims were sitting in a parked vehicle when two hooded strangers approached, one of them brandishing a firearm, and demanded, “Give us everything you’ve got.” The victims had no money (they were UT students, so in case you’re wondering, there was no official word on whether they had any teeth or whether those teeth were perpendicular, although a prominent overbite is likely).

With nothing to gain, the perps then hopped into their Toyota Prius and fled the scene. The cops pulled them over near the athletic dorm and found a pellet gun, hooded sweatshirts, drug paraphernalia and a bag of what appeared to be marijuana in car. Yeah, we be rollin’ and bangin’ in da Prius wi’ da pellet gun.

As recently as Wednesday, during the SEC coaches teleconference, Vol Head Coach Lane Kiffin praised his team for not having any off-the-field problems during his tenure and had repeated several times this year that the Vols had been free of any such incidents. It’s nice to see that young Kiffin has such tight control over his players.

The icing on the big orange cake was this comment from one of the victims:

“I think they should still be able to play football, regardless. Tennessee is my place. It’s my football team,” Corey B. Zickefoose, 20, told WATE-TV in Knoxville.

“Even after they put a gun in your face, you say let them play football?” reporter Harlow Sumerford asked.

“Yeah, it’s Tennessee. That’s the way it is sometimes,” Zickefoose said.

THE RUNDOWN

This is the part I’ve been dreading, but we might as well take it like men. Last week’s picks:

Penn State: Loser. Georgia Tech: Loser. Cincinnati: Loser. USC: Loser. Colorado State: Loser. 0 for 5 on Saturday. Surely Sunday will be better, right? Ravens: Loser. Saints: Loser. Eagles: Loser. 0 for 3 on Sunday.

You really have to admire the consistency there. And like we said last week, it’s just as hard to lose every game as it is to win every game, although it doesn’t pay nearly as well.

There were a couple of bright spots. We ended the week with a big win on Monday night with the Steelers, so if you were smart enough to let all the weekend losses ride on that last game, you would have finished up even Steven.

Season performance: -$7700 this week means we’re -$13,700 on the season.

TWINNER HOTNESS

Even though the regular picks have been as cold as ice, my TWINNERS have been unbelievable. A 4-1 weekend upped the season total to 16-4, so if you’re not following me on twitter, you need to start right now. Add the weekend TWINNER winnings to my total, and the new season tally is -$10,800. That sucks, but at least I got a sweet invitation to spend Sunday watching games on the 60-inch flat screen my bookie just bought for his new boat. That’s something.

GETTING IT BACK

Hypothetically, if you’ve already lost your 401(k), your rainy day fund, your savings account, your checking account and half your kid’s college fund, it may be time to stop. OR, it may be time to cash in the other half of the college fund, pawn your car title and let it all ride on one big weekend. Wise men go where cowards fear to tread, especially when they know they’re DUE.

After a 1-7 weekend, there’s practically no way we can continue losing at this clip. So we’re gonna go big this weekend.

FRIDAY

That’s right – we’ve got a college double-header tonight, so let’s get the winning started early.

West Virginia at Cincinnati

There’s mad money on the over in this game, more than 90 percent at some sports books. That’s probably because people can remember the Rich Rod glory days when West Virginia actually had an offense. But the Rod man bolted for the maize and blue, and some crazy old grandpa is calling the shots for the Mountaineers now. Let’s start the winning with UNDER 55.

Temple at Akron

The Owls vs. the Zips: What a mascot matchup this is. Yes, Temple really has a football team. And what’s more, they’re 7-2 on the year and likely headed for their first bowl game since a 1979 appearance in the Garden State Bowl. Since I’ve already told you way more than you ever cared to know about Temple football, let’s get on with the pick: Take the Zips +4 (that’s Akron).

SATURDAY

This is the time of the year when the bookies start taking back all the money that the fortunate fools may have won through the year. Trends get erased. Balance returns to the system. Winners lose. Losers win. They don’t have all those bright lights in Vegas because people win money all the time. No, people lose. And lose big. So we’re going into the weekend with The System giving extra weight to those games that “everyone” thinks will go a certain way.

Syracuse at Louisville

One sports book told me on the sly (aka “the Internet”) that 100 percent of money wagered so far is on the Over in this game, with nothing on Under. Egad, man. That’s insane. The total is currently at 47.5, and I’m not sure either of these teams is capable of putting together enough decent football to get the total that high. Let’s go the other way and take UNDER 47.5.

Clemson at N.C. State

Clemson is like a broken record, and I hate saying that because their head coach, Dabo Swinney, is a Crimson Tide man. But let’s see if this sounds familiar: Stellar recruiting class followed by preseason hype followed by heartbreaking early season losses followed by a mid-season rally that ends with an end-of-year collapse. A Clemson grad once told me that Clemson was “The Harvard of the South.” I think he meant that Clemson is the “Auburn of South Carolina.” Take a rallying N.C. State +8.

Kentucky at Vanderbilt

There’s absolutely nothing about this matchup that excites me, but Dan says I should stop taking favorites on the road. After the past two weeks, I’m starting to believe him. So here we have one bad team getting points at home against another bad team. I’ll take those points: Vandy +4.

Florida at South Carolina

Florida is the defending national champion, has won two of the past three championships, and is pretty much the consensus pick as the best team in the country. So they must have really been wearing some teams out, right? Not really. They’ve won every game, and that’s commendable, but their only blowouts this year have come against Charleston Southern, Troy, Kentucky, Georgia and Vandy, five really bad teams. South Carolina’s losses have all been giveaways with unbelievable mistakes and costly turnovers. South Carolina has a stout defense and should be able to slow Florida down. This one stays low, too: Take the UNDER 42.5.

Idaho at Boise St.

Boise was our only TWINNER loss last week after giving away a sure cover with a late pick 6 that totally changed the whole game. But that was Boise on the road. This week, the Broncos return to the abominable home blue turf that makes every game an eyesore to watch. They’re matched against in-state rival Idaho, and this one should be a blowout: Take Boise St. -31.

SUNDAY

Anytime I see the betting public in general thinking that a Las Vegas line is out of whack, it pricks my gambling ears up a little bit. The betting public in general is full of idiots, sometimes including myself, and Las Vegas odds makers generally know what they’re doing.

So far this year, we’ve played a lot of favorites in the NFL, and despite the early season trend of favorites covering the line, we’ve pretty much had our asses handed to us by The Man. So this weekend, while I’m kicking back on the boat in front of the big screen, I’m going to have all my Washington’s riding on the opposite side of the games that everyone else is laying heavy on.

So, I’ll spare you the commentary this week and give you NOTHING BUT WINNERS, BABY:

• Jets & Jaguars UNDER 40.5.
• Redskins +4.5 vs the Broncos
• St. Louis +13.5 at the Rams
• Green Bay +3 vs. the Cowboys AND Under 47.5
• Cleveland +10.5 vs Baltimore

Mmmm… Smell those dogs cooking up nicely? It’s going to be a Game Day Bookie Barbeque when all these winners start rolling in on Sunday, and I’m going to be right there on the boat in front of the big screen (that I paid for) watching The Man crumble in the wake of my awesomeness.

Oklahoma State’s Dez Bryant got word from the NCAA that he will remain suspended for the rest of the season for lying to NCAA investigators. Meanwhile, Florida linebacker Brandon Spikes was caught on film trying his best to gouge a Georgia player’s eyes out, and Urban Meyer suspended him for half a game, a penalty later upheld by the NCAA.

So, lying gets you a season, and attempting to permanently blind another player gets you half an hour. That makes good sense. And, it’s half a game against Vanderbilt, no less, which is really more like a quarter against a real football team.  The penalty was such a joke that Spikes decided to go ahead and suspend himself for the whole Vanderbilt game. Are you kidding me? Urban Meyer is like school in the summertime: No class.

But I digress. This space is not about righting wrongs, it’s about winning. Going into last weekend, we were down a modest $7500 on the season (playing $1,000 a bet). That’s completely unacceptable, of course, so in order to get our victory train back on track, we needed a big Saturday, and we got one.

We started with a loser when Auburn completely demolished Ole Miss. Let’s review the pre-season predictions of Tim Brando, the top college football man at CBS Sports. He said Ole Miss had more talent than Alabama. He said Jevan Snead was the best quarterback in the SEC, maybe the country. He said Houston Nutt was a better coach than Nick Saban. Strike three, Timmy: You suck.

The rest of the day was smokin’ hot, with regular picks going 3-1 after the Ole Miss loss, and TWINNERs nailing three victories without a loss.

Headed into Sunday, it looked like we were about to finally put The Man down for good. And then it happened. The 0-fer, as in 0 for 3. No wins.  We picked only three games – all favorites – and the ghost of Dan’s early season comments came back to bite us on the ass. Colts: LOSER. Cards: LOSER. Saints: LOSER. The lone bright spot was the only TWINNER of the day: Vikings over the Packers.

Mathematically speaking, it’s just as hard to lose every game as it is to win every game. So we’ve proven, at the very least, that we’re capable of winning every game. Giddy up.

The Tally:

Regular Picks    3-5 (-$2500)

TWINNERs:       4-0 (+$4000)

Week:               +$1500

Season:                        -$6000

SATURDAY WINNERS

Ohio St. at Penn St.
Big 10 football excites me about as much as a dirt clod. The lone exception is Penn St., who can put some offense together when they protect their quarterback. Meanwhile in Columbus, Jim Tressel has managed to take a ton of raw, undeveloped talent in quarterback Terrelle Pryor and, in two years of coaching, helped him grow into a ton of raw, undeveloped talent. Pryor is worse right now than he was in his first start. Nice job, Sweatervest. Take the Nittany Lions at home -3.5.

Wake Forest at Ga. Tech
The Demon Deacons are tough to figure. Just two years ago they played in the ACC Championship Game in Jacksonville in a driving rain in front of dozens of people. Does anyone really care who wins the ACC? Now, Wake is struggling to beat junior high teams while hanging tough with the big boys. But we’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again: Bobby Johnson rules. His triple-option spread attack is almost impossible to prepare for in one week, and Wake just doesn’t have the muscle on defense to slow down the Ramblin’ Wreck. Take the Jackets -14.

Connecticut at Cincinnati
The Bearcats are going to do their dead-level best to destroy all the mediocre teams they play this year to impress the pollsters and try to nudge themselves into a chance at the title. Here’s comes another chump: Connecticut. Cincinnati is a covering machine: Take the Bearcats -17

USC at Arizona St.
USC is always tough after a loss. Look for them to rebound big this week and run it up on Arizona St. The Sun Devils are 4-4 on the season, but their four wins came against teams with a combined record of 8-25. This one’s not even close: Trojans -10.

Colorado St. at UNLV
Here’s one for the late-night crowd. These are two of the worst teams in D1 football, but the winner of this game still has a shot at a bowl berth. Is the Poulan Weedeater Bowl still around? Maybe they’ll make the Papa John’s Bowl in Birmingham, Ala., played at a stadium so sketchy that in spite of purchasing the bowl naming rights, Papa John’s won’t deliver pizzas to the neighborhood where the game is played. Take the Rams in a pick ‘em

SUNDAY BLOODY SUNDAY

We still have that 0-fer from last Sunday to contend with. Three games and no wins make Jimmy a psychotic bastard. In fact, all year long, Sundays have been tough on The System, but as more games are played and more numbers are crunched, and more trends get established, the odds tilt ever more in our favor. And is there anything in gambling better than a big old pile of DUE? We’re due baby, and I think it’s just about time to kick some Sunday ass.

Baltimore at Cincinnati
The Ravens got off to a hot start then cooled off for a few games before finally getting back off the skids last weekend. After losing three heart-breakers in a row, Baltimore rebounded by handing the Broncos their first loss of the year in a convincing fashion. Cincinnati has played way over their heads this year – Take the Ravens -3.

Carolina at New Orleans
New Orleans has covered almost every game this season (except the two weeks that I picked them.) Carolina shocked us last week by going to Arizona and getting a win, but the only other games the Panthers have won – or even been close in – were against Washington and Tampa Bay. Yikes. Brees is already salivating over this Panther defense: Take the Saints -13.

Dallas at Philly
Dallas is way overrated. Receiver Roy Williams – who leads the world in dropped balls – actually had this to say recently about Tony Romo: “It’s just not even close. … I’m the No. 1 receiver. But things are just going No. 2’s way. He gets the ball thrown correctly his way. I’m stretching and falling and doing everything.”

Yeah, Roy, you’re doing everything except catching the damn ball. I wouldn’t throw you a hot potato, butterfingers. Imagine that – discord in Dallas. Philadelphia rolls: Take the Eagles -3.

Pittsburgh at Denver
Denver’s dream start came crashing down around them last week as the Ravens dismantled them en route to a 30-7 whipping, and that’s coming off a bye week for Denver. So are they as good as we once thought? No, they are not. This week, it’s Pittsburgh coming off the bye and travelling to Mile High for a Monday night matchup. Denver is good, but Pittsburgh is Super Bowl material: Take the Steelers -3.

THE RUNDOWN

Penn St. -3 vs Ohio Sweater

Georgia Tech -14 vs Wake Forest

Cincinnati -17 vs Connetticut (That’s how it should be spelled, damnit.)

USC -10 at Arizona St.

Colorado St. pick ‘em at UNLV

Baltimore -3 at Cincinnati

New Orleans -13 vs Carolina

Philly -3 vs Cowgirls

Pittsburgh -3 at Denver

And remember, at 13-3 on the season, our TWINNERs are kicking some bookie ass this year, so follow me on Twitter for exclusive TWINNER picks and game day commentary. We may even have a TWINNER on tonight’s college game, where Vince Dooley’s son Pat hopes to right La. Tech’s listing ship against powerhouse Boise St.

How bad is it for Dooley? His mother, Barbara, summed it up pretty well on the Paul Finebaum Show this week: “Right now, he’s sucking wind.” Thanks, Mom.

On Saturday, my beloved Crimson Tide was the FIVE-STAR TRIPLE-DOWN GOLD PLATED LOCK OF THE YEAR giving up 15 at home against hated Tennessee. The FIVE-STAR TRIPLE-DOWN GOLD PLATED LOCK OF THE YEAR has never lost. Never.

It was a defensive battle throughout, and Alabama’s offense couldn’t get it going against Tennessee’s stout D, but a late cover appeared in reach as the Crimson Tide led 12-3 with the ball and about three and a half minutes left. All we needed to do was give the ball to Mark Ingram and let him march down the field for the late touchdown and the sweet, sweet cover.

Of course, the announcers HAVE to point out several times that Mark Ingram has never lost a fumble. They keep saying it over and over. Three hundred and something carries and he’s never lost a fumble.  Never lost a fumble. You know, Mark Ingram has NEVER LOST A FUMBLE. My God, will you shut up about it? But it was too late. The jinx was on. For the first time in his college career, Mark Ingram lost a fumble. And of all people, it was Eric Berry who knocked the ball loose.

Tennessee recovered, scored a quick touchdown, and kicked the inevitable onsides kick that should have ended it. But we missed it, and they recovered. So in just 10 short minutes, I’ve gone from a comfortable win with a cover in sight to a total collapse that has me staring down the barrel of a loss to Tennessee with hopes for another perfect season and a 13^th national championship dangling in the balance. It took a blocked field goal from Terrance “Mount” Cody – who came right up through the one hole and blew two linemen backwards to block the kick with his armpit.

“I didn’t really get off the ground,” Cody said. “I just reached my arm up. That’s how I got it. I knocked (the blocker) back. He was on his back.”

As if that drama weren’t enough, Sunday’s opening stanza had my winning hopes pinned squarely on Brett Favre. The cover was seldom in doubt. It was back and forth all the way, but the five point cushion had us comfortable through most of the game. It came down to one drive, one chance for Favre to pull yet another miracle, but it doesn’t matter, because we’ve got five points and the ball. With mere seconds remaining, what’s the worst that could happen? Well, we found out, didn’t we? Favre threw an interception returned 82 yards for a touchdown (after having a fumble returned 77 yards earlier in the game).

That’s gambling.

Luckily, the TWINNERs continued to be SMOKIN’ HOT, so if you follow me on Twitter, you managed to break even for the weekend, minus the juice of course.

TWINNERs: 3-0 (Rutgers, Iowa, Miss St.) – That’s 8-3 on the year!

FIVE-STAR TRIPLE-DOWN GOLD PLATED LOCK OF THE YEAR: 0-1 (Tripled up = -3!)

NFL: 2-2 (Blame stupid Favre)

TOTAL for the week: 5-5 (-$500)

Season total: -$7500

We’ve got him right where we want him

Slump? I ain’t in no slump… I just ain’t hitting.
– Yogi Berra

The college season is more than half done, so we’ve seen enough from each of these teams to know pretty much where they stand. The System is packed full of data from the current year, having flushed through all the holdover tags and trends from last year. Most of the Joes you know have gotten “too busy to fool with it” any more, meaning they’ve lost their asses, and their wives (or husbands) won’t let them gamble any more. But we’re hanging in there, ready for the inevitable hot streak.

HALLOWINNERS

Strange things will happen this Hallows eve. We should win enough on Saturday to put 10-spots in all the little trick-or-treaters’ candy sacks, except for those stupid teenagers who are way too old and show up with some lazy, terrible costume like a pillowcase and some stick they found in my yard. Those idiots get a single Peanut Butter Log from me, and it’s usually chipped.

But on Saturday, I’m already pumped about laying up with some of my favorite Halloween spirits, a bucket of wings, an extra large ranch dressing, and watching about 14 straight hours of college football. Even the dirty, “you should be spending Halloween with your kids, you ass!” looks from my wife won’t get me down. Have a look at these winners Jimmy hand-picked just for you:

Ole Miss at Auburn (+4.5) – SEC TV, Noon ET.
Just a few weeks ago, I noticed a sign I failed to heed: Auburn fans were starting to talk about scenarios that might get them into the SEC championship game. We all should have seen this losing streak coming when Auburn’s early successes came against some of the worst defenses in college football.

This week, Ole Miss comes to town, and for some reason, Ole Miss fans have hated Auburn ever since the Tigers had the AUdacity to hire Tommy Tuberville away from Ole Miss, the only SEC team that Auburn beat the year before. Go figure. You beat one team, and that’s the coach you go hire. Well done, Bobby.

Ole Miss is not a top-5 team, as said before the bandwagon was deserted, but they’re much more like the good teams that Auburn has struggled against this year. The downslide continues: Take the Rebels -4.5.

Indiana at Iowa (-17.5) – ESPN, Noon ET
Iowa remains the least respected undefeated teams from major conferences. They’re playing for respect at home against a truly bad football team. This one should be over early: Take the Hawkeyes -17.5.

Cincinnati at Syracuse (+15) – ESPNU, Noon eastern
Cincinnati is another undefeated team that keeps hearing they’re not good enough to play for the title. The only thing they can do to prove the college football world wrong is to keep going out and smashing the lesser teams. Syracuse is the epitome of a lesser team. The Bearcats roll again this week -15.

Michigan at Illinois (+7) – ABC or ESPN2, 3:30 eastern
The Rod continues his efforts to build Michigan up even as a letter of inquiry from the NCAA arrives in Ann Arbor. It seems some players have complained about having to practice too much. This is Big 10 Football. Go play “intermurals,” brother.

But does anybody wear out a welcome faster than Ron Zook? Remember FireRonZook.com opening up the day he was hired at Florida? They finally ran him off to Illinois, where after some early flash, he’s managed to run that program totally into the toilet. In this battle of embattled programs, Michigan comes out the winner. Better defense + better quarterback + better running game = cover. Wolverines -7.5.

Georgia Tech at Vanderbilt (+11.5) – CSS, 7:30 eastern
Bobby Johnson has Tech fans jacked about the program. His triple-option spread attack is unlike any other offense in the ACC or Vandy’s SEC, and teams have trouble preparing for it in just one week. Vandy won’t be ready for it, and Tech will march all over them. Take the Jackets -11.5.

SUNDAY

The big boys come out to play on Sunday. That’s true for the gridiron as well as the sports books. More money is wagered on the NFL than any other sport, and this year, big favorites have been covering the spread at a record clip, making it one of the worst years in memory for sports books.

So what do we do? We kick ‘em while they’re down.

San Francisco at Indianapolis (-13) *****DOUBLE-DOWN LOCK*****
Vegas needs to rewrite their formulas for point spreads on Sir Peyton. I love Singletary and hopes he fares well, but he’s outmatched on Indy’s home turf. Take the Colts -13, and get it in quick, because this number will probably get bigger.

Carolina at Arizona (-10)
Carolina has whipped some bad teams to scratch their way back to respectability, but Arizona is a hell of a football team. They played in the Super Bowl last year. They just went to New York and beat the Giants. This is a long road trip for Carolina. They’re far from home and outmatched by a long shot: Cards -10

Atlanta at New Orleans (-10)
Atlanta is my home team, and I love them dearly, but this is one of those games in which, as a life-long Falcons fan, you can just see the ass-whipping on its way. Our secondary is a weakness, and New Orleans has a pretty decent passing attack. As much as I hate to say it, this one’s a blowout. Take the Saints -10.

THE RUNDOWN

Ole Miss -4.5 at Auburn – SEC TV, Noon eastern.

Iowa -17.5 vs Indiana – ESPN, Noon eastern

Cincinnati -15 at Syracuse – ESPNU, Noon eastern

Michigan -7 at Illinois – ABC or ESPN2, 3:30 eastern

Georgia Tech -11.5 at Vanderbilt – CSS, 7:30 eastern

Indianapolis -13 vs San Francisco (DOUBLE-DOWN LOCK)

Arizona -10 vs Carolina

New Orleans -10 vs Atlanta

Forget Valley Forge, these are the times that try men’s souls. You know you shouldn’t, but you know just as well that one good hot streak will get it all back and more and erase all those bad memories. You CAN be a winner. So you stumble back to the ATM for one more shot, and even though you know the sun is probably coming up somewhere, who’s to say that this isn’t going to be the one that launches you to the stratosphere?

A TEMPORARY SETBACK

“I’m a loser, baby, so why don’t you kill me.”
- Beck

Last week was an unmitigated disaster. I knew bad things were coming when Oklahoma and Texas – supposedly two of the best teams in the country – combined for six fumbles and three interceptions. The Longhorns managed to take Bradford out early but still mustered only enough points for a freakin’ push. And it was all downhill from there.

Wisconsin: LOSS. USC: LOSS. Auburn: LOSS (two weeks running). Sunday: LOSS LOSS LOSS. Somebody shoot me in the head. As the weekend wore on, the losses piled up higher than the chicken bones in the little red-and-white cardboard wing-bone tray, and my wins were about as scarce as ranch dressing at the end of the day.

The only bright spots of the weekend were the DOUBLE-DOWN LOCK Mississippi St. covering easily, just like I said, and the Atlanta Falcons saving us from an 0-fer on Sunday. A freakin’ 0-fer.

When all was said and done, the carnage looked something like this:

Saturday:      2-3-1 (-$1,300)

Sunday:        1-4    (-$3,400)

TWINNERS: 1-3    (-$2,300)

We opened the week up $2,400 and lost an even $7,000. Hell yes – seven is my lucky number, so this is a good omen. We’re going to win this week. We’re down $4,600 on the year, but luckily we didn’t just cash out PART of our 401(k) to bankroll this rally, we cashed out the whole damn thing. So we’ve got plenty of bank left to take it to The Man. And we’re due.

SATURDAY

“You never know what a football player is made of until he plays Alabama.”
- Gen. Neyland

(NOTE to dumbass hillbilly Tennessee fans: It’s pronounced ‘NEE-land,’ not ‘NAY-land.’ He’s the greatest coach in the history of your program and your stadium is named after him – at least learn how to pronounce his name, you idiots.)

The calendar says otherwise, but to rednecks, hillbillies and good ole boys across the South, Saturday is a special day: The Third Saturday in October. That used to be the day that saw Alabama and Tennessee square off every single year until the boneheads in the SEC scheduling department decided to screw that up.

These teams hate each other. The fans hate each other. The equipment managers and the water boys hate each other. Ever since Phil “Chief Wiggum” Fulmer decided to become a secret witness in an attempt to bury the Alabama program (which he almost did even though NCAA bylaws forbid the use of secret witnesses, bastards), this rivalry has turned from heated to hatred.

To make matter worse, Tennessee Coach Lane Kiffin earlier this year hired super-recruiter Lance Thompson away from Alabama, and Thompson quickly claimed that he was going to “lock down Memphis” and out-recruit the Tide. The very next day, Nick Saban landed a commitment from the top high school receiver in Memphis.

Earlier this week, Kiffin asked Alabama if Tennessee could wear their home orange jerseys in this matchup, even though the game is in Tuscaloosa, and Alabama denied the request (it was AD Mal Moore, not Saban, who made the call). If you’re wondering why, just take one look at those laundromat orange jerseys, and you’ll understand why no one in their right mind would want to see that putrid color any more than absolutely necessary.

This game is so big that it’s our only play on Saturday. It’s our first FIVE-STAR TRIPLE-DOWN GOLD PLATED LOCK OF THE YEAR. Alabama won’t need to lay down any tape to line up this ass-kicking. Triple up on this one: The Tide rolls at home over the Kiffins: Alabama -15.

SUNDAY

Minnesota at Pittsburgh
Farvelous Brett “There is an ‘I’ in WIN” Favre takes his undefeated Vikings squad on the road to face the defending Super Bowl champs. This looks to be a great matchup. Normally, I’d be nervous taking a dome team on the grass, but Favre knows cold AND grass. The Vikings – with a super power running game and a stiff D – are not your typical dome team. Pittsburg wins in a close one, but take the points here: Vikings +5.

Indianapolis at St. Louis
Do I really need to explain this one? Have you seen Peyton Manning this year? Colts -13.5.

New York Jets at Oakland
The Jets are in a tailspin because they suddenly remembered that they’re the Jets. I still maintain that Jamarcus Russell is perhaps the worst starter in the NFL. He cost us last week when he shocked the Eagles, but that was Andy Reid’s fault. Go eat another meatloaf, Andy. Take the home dog (just for Dan): Oakland +6.

Philadelphia at Washington
The Redskins would be better off with Dee Snyder at the helm. In a shocking move, the Danny Dollar managed to convince Sherm Lewis to give up his gig as a bingo-caller at an old folks place to come in as a consultant for a team that has now played six consecutive matchups against teams that, coming into each game, had no wins. They then stripped Zorn’s play-calling duties and handed them to Sherm. If you listen closely when Washington has the ball, you may hear the play calls coming in from the sidelines: “B-42. N-29. G-15. Bingo!” Philly gets back off the mat: Eagles -7.

THE RUNDOWN

Alabama -15 vs. Tennessee (TRIPLE PLAY!)

Minnesota +5 at Pittsburgh

Indianapolis -13.5 at St. Louis

Oakland +6 vs. J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets.

Philly -7 at Washington.

That’s all for this weekend. Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter for hilarious game day commentary as well as exclusive game day TWINNER picks, which are a respectable 5-3 on the season.

MAIL BAG

Jimmy,
What was your single greatest gambling moment?
-M.

M: Great question. When I was but a wee college lad, I made the trek to the pitiful dog racing track in Greene County, Alabama, and proceeded to get smashed with a buddy and lose every race. After we drank and gambled our way through almost every dollar we had, I took our last five bucks to the counter for one last glory bet. I was standing at the window trying not to smell all the west Alabama trash around me when I notice the price of cocktails: $2.75 (yes, drinks were only $2.75 back then). So I put a $5 exacta on the 2-7. The two-dog was such a long-shot there was no real need to stick around and watch, so we took the ticket the car and drove to the top of the hill overlooking the track to watch our loser. Lo and behold, it hit. It was my first exacta – a proud moment, and that $5 bet paid more than $250 smackers, my biggest single win to date at the time. We made our way back into the track, cashed in the ticket, and drove back Tuscaloosa where we disposed of our winnings in one glorious, bar-hopping drunken binge. Ahh, college.

Jimmy,
Please quit picking Auburn. You’ve picked us twice in a row and we lost both times!”
-P.

P: You lost because you suck, not because I picked you. You have seven fewer scholarship players than most teams because your last coach recruited idiots who can’t stay in the program. If you keep Gus long enough, you’ll be back to your rightful position as a second-tier SEC team in no time. Chin up.

IN THE BLACK

For most people, an 8-4 week after a lackluster .500 start would be a cause for celebration, a chance to pick up some cabbage and blow it on frivolous things before the next weekend even begins. For someone with an unhealthy obsession on winning (and wings), it’s a chance to snuggle up with a bucket of ranch dressing and figure out what went wrong in our four losers.

First, let’s get to the rundown. We opened the weekend 12-12 overall, so at a dime a bet, we’re down $1,200.

REVIEW

Regular Picks:   6-4

TWINNERs:       2-0

Week total:       8-4  (+ $3,600)

So far this season: + $2,400.

Things we won’t whine about:

• Picking Florida on Friday then finding out before game time that Tebow is going to start after all.
• Losing NFL games to Kyle Orton and Chad Henne. Ouch.

So far this week, our TWINNERs are 1-1 with the first TWINNER loss of the year coming last night with South Florida.

SATURDAY

Now that we’re back in the black and we have a couple of dimes to play with, we’ve reached the time of the season when lesser players begin to run out of brains and/or money and start falling off the wagon. Your bookie’s pockets are loaded, so it’s a perfect time for a hot streak.

“You never win a game unless you beat the guy in front of you. …You’ve got to win the war with the man in front of you. You’ve got to get your man.”

- Vince Lombardi

Oklahoma vs Texas (from Dallas) – Noon ET, ABC

So far this year, these teams are combined 2-7 against the spread with only one win each. Yikes. Many think this game will decide who gets to play the SEC champ in the BCS title game, but what most people think in October usually turns out wrong. Sooner QB Sam Bradford returned last week after two weeks injured to lead Oklahoma to a comfortable yet lackluster win over Baylor. Vegas has the Longhorns as a 3-point, neutral-field favorite. That’s way too low. Oklahoma is not nearly as big and strong up front as they were last year. They’ve lost two games, so national championship hopes are out the window. With a lot still on the table to play for, Texas rolls: Take the Longhorns -3.

Iowa at Wisconsin – Noon ET, ESPN

In 2002, Head Coach Kirk Ferentz led the Hawkeyes to an 11-1 season and a share of the Big 10 title. NFL coaching rumors were rampant, and the school locked Ferentz in with a huge, long-term contract. They’ve pretty much sucked ever since, and Kirk’s job opportunity phone isn’t ringing very often these days. Last week, we told you Michigan was better than Iowa, and the 8-point dogs won outright. Well, Wisconsin is also better than Iowa – take the Badgers -2.5.

Mississippi St. at Middle Tennessee St. – 12:30 PM ET   (**** DOUBLE-DOWN LOCK ****)

I usually like to stick to the bigger games so you can maximize your enjoyment by watching your winners live on national television, but every now and then a lesser game comes around with a point spread so wrong that The System simply demands we throw down on it. The MTSU Blue Raiders have looked impressive in a couple of games this year, and they’ll have their game faces on for an SEC opponent Saturday. But Dan Mullen has found an offense from amid the rubble left by Sylvester Croom in Starkville, and Mississippi State will win this one going away: Bulldogs -4.5

USC at Notre Dame – 3:30 PM ET, NBC

My, my, my. Little Jimmy Clausen has pranced his way into the Heisman talk, and Notre Dame sits at 4-1 ranked 25^th in the nation. Lou Holtz would probably crown them today if he had the chance. What a joke. Notre Dame is a bad football team. Their defense is terrible. Their offense has flash but won’t stand a chance against USC. Charley Weiss has been terrible since day 1, and that won’t change on Saturday. This one will be over by the second quarter. Go Trojans: -10.

Kentucky at Auburn

Auburn broke our hearts last week by getting walloped at Arkansas, but the Tigers return to the friendly confines of Jordan-Hare stadium Saturday, where they pack a powerful offensive punch. That should be enough to power them past the Wildcats. Any reason Kentucky might have had to give it their all this year has been buried under a pile of losses. Take the Tigers -13.5.

SUNDAY

This is a tough Sunday for the system. Several teams that have appeared downright awful are starting to show signs of life. Detroit and Kansas City have both climbed up to the “looking good in defeat” stage. So who is out there we can count on for a loss? Who is left that is so bad that, no matter how hard they try, they will never do anything but suck and lose and get beaten every time they take the field? I’ll tell you who – Jamarcus Russell.

Carolina at Tampa Bay

Tampa is bad, really bad. But they’re not bad enough to lose every game. This should be the week they mark one down in the win column: Take the points at home – Bucs +3.5

New York at New Orleans

New York has covered for us three straight weeks in fairly convincing fashion. This week, the Giants find themselves getting three and a half at offensive powerhouse New Orleans. Eli’s heel is still a little dinged up, but he didn’t get enough of a workout last week to matter. He should be fresh, and the Giants are the better team in this one. We’ll keep riding this train until it stops: Giants +3.

Philly at Oakland

Sit down, Ryan Leaf. Jamarcus Russell will go down in history as the worst quarterback ever selected at or even near the top of the NFL draft. This guy was not very good in college, and he’s even worse in the NFL. And the cast of characters around him is just as bad as he is. Assistant coaches fighting in the locker roomand an owner that should be a character on the Simpsons… Oakland is bad. Lay the points on the road: Philly -14.

Chicago at Atlanta (Sunday night)

Dome, sweet Dome for the Falcons as they welcome the Chicago Bears to the Georgia Dome for a Sunday night special. Atlanta has managed to hide most of their holes on defense, but Cutler has the cannon to expose most of them. The Falcon’s big-play machine was in fine form last week at San Fran, so we look for both of these teams to move the ball. At the end, Atlanta simply has more weapons: Falcons -3.5.

Denver at San Diego

Just six weeks into the season, and Denver has a strangle-hold in the AFC west at an amazing 5-0. At 2-2, the Chargers are standing in Bronco dust and wondering what happened to the division lead. Denver doesn’t need this game, surprisingly enough, and they’re coming off a huge emotional win at home over the Patriots last week. I smell a letdown. Take the Chargers -3.5.

Back home this weekend

After a nice trek through the North Carolina foliage last weekend, I’m back where I belong for game day this week: In the delicious ass-groove of my couch with wings and ranch in reach. Stay in touch with game day hilarity and easy-money TWINNERs by following Jimmy_Geek on Twitter. Let’s go do some winning.

MAIL BAG

I think Jimmy needs to start including home field advantage in his models. Way too many road covers.
- D

D: Road covers were 5-3 last week. Home dogs were 0-1. Thanks for your input, even though it’s worthless.

Jimmy,
Should I buy the half?
-L

L: Rarely, but if you must, be sure you buy to push on 3, 7 or maybe 10, and never buy to win.

Recap:

Texas -3 vs Oklahoma

Wisconsin -2.5 vs Iowa

Mississippi St. -4.5 at Middle Tennessee State (DOUBLE-DOWN LOCK)

USC -10 at Notre Dame

Auburn -13.5 vs Kentucky

Tampa Bay +3.5 vs Carolina

New York Giants +3 at New Orleans

Philadelphia -14 at Oakland

Atlanta -3.5 vs Chicago

San Diego -3.5 vs Denver

“It’s easy to have faith in yourself and have discipline when you’re a winner, when you’re number one. What you got to have is faith and discipline when you’re not a winner.”
- Vince Lombardi

There comes a time when you look back over your performance for the past few weeks, and something starts to stand out. You can still taste the really close losses. Some of the shine on the wins has begun to fade, but not all of them. There were a couple of games you picked that were brilliant, and you still know just how right you were. You called it.

So in the spirit of constant improvement, we have conducted a thorough, in-depth review of our two-week run here on rotoholics.com, and all our experts agree that we have identified a clear, irrefutable fact: We’re due. Oh, man, are we due! We’ve been tearing through these first games at a perfectly flat pace just like a fighter jet screaming down the runway, and we’re about to take off.

QUICK REVIEW

Regular Picks:   6-5

BONUS Pick:    0-1 (Jets/Saints over)

D-D LOCK:       0-1 (Sooners -7’ at Miami)

TWINNERS: 1-0 (Ohio State -18’)

WEEK TOTAL:  7-7 (pathetic crap)

SEASON:         12-12 (embarrassment)

Bankroll: -$1,200 (all juice)

“We didn’t lose the game; we just ran out of time.”
-Vince Lombardi

I could whine about the Ravens (+2) driving to score a game winner with half a minute left when on fourth and three in the red zone, Flacco hit Mark Clayton for an easy first down pass, and Clayton dropped the freakin’ ball. Catch it with your hands, idiot. Your shoulder pads don’t have hands.

But we’re about winning, not whining, so we’ll focus very little on the fact that several of our other teams had comfortable early leads only to have everything fall completely apart rather suddenly and mysteriously. It must have been solar flares, or perhaps the waning gibbous.

Luckily, if you’re following Jimmy the Geek on Twitter, you got last’s night’s TWINNER, Nebraska -3.5, and you’re already up. It’s time to start getting your game face ready.

SATURDAY

Auburn at Arkansas (+2.5), Noon ET on ESPN

Auburn is 5-0 with wins over Tennessee and West Virginia. Most years, that’s Top 10, no questions asked, but Auburn finds itself once again struggling for national respect. Auburn’s defense hasn’t played well, Arkansas is much worse. Former Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville recently said Arkansas’ defense “can’t stop a cold.” What?

Anyway, let’s not forget that Auburn offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn spent his torturous first college tenure as offensive coordinator at Arkansas reportedly being called “high school” by other members of the (now departed) Houston Nutt coaching staff. There are a lot more interesting story lines in this one, too, but Auburn will come out on top in a shootout. Take the Tigers -2.5.

Alabama at Ole Miss (+5.5), 3:30 ET on CBS

This is tearing me apart. I love Alabama football, so my passion is creeping over into my business stuff. But who am I to question a system? Let’s remember that Tim Brando, the host of CBS college football, said emphatically a few weeks ago that “on paper, Ole Miss is more talented than Alabama.” He must have been referring to his rolling papers, because he was obviously smoking something. Or is it just because his daughter is an Ole Miss student? Like I said: Ole Miss fans, last year is as good as it gets for you. Alabama rolls: Crimson Tide -5.5.

Michigan at Iowa (-8), 8 p.m. ET on ABC

I don’t think I’d watch this game if they were playing in my back yard. Still, Michigan is better. Wolverines +8.

Georgia Tech at FSU (+3), 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2

Bobby Bowden was asked a legitimate question about his future by a female reporter and, after a curt response chiding the question itself, uttered the phrase, “just like a woman.” Nice, Bobby. Why don’t you send her off to get you a cup of coffee and slap her on the ass for good measure? FSU’s coaching staff is in turmoil … Jackets -3.

Florida -7.5 at LSU, 8 p.m. ET on CBS

Anyone who thinks home field advantage makes a difference in the NFL should watch this game. A Saturday night game in Baton Rouge is one of the rowdiest, noisiest events anywhere. LSU fans will start with Bloody Marys in the morning, devour fantastic food and drink all day, and this stadium will be on fire when the game starts, most likely with a young Florida quarterback making his first big-time start while.

At some point late in the game, with the score close, The Hat will make some boneheaded, roll-the-dice call that will leave everyone baffled. If he gets lucky, he wins. If not, he loses. Either way, this one stays close: Tigers +7.5

SUNDAY

“Even the losers get lucky sometimes.”
- Tom Petty

After several heartbreakers last week, Sunday looks like one of those special days when you know going in that, even if you lose every game, you won so much on Saturday that it doesn’t matter. You make your first flip through all the early NFL games when the scores are just starting to post, and everything looks pretty good. As the day passes and more points pile up, things keep going your way and you feel smarter and better looking by the minute.

Maybe you’ll have a beer. Maybe you’ve already had several. Maybe it’s Wing Day with some extra ranch dressing, or the special cheese dip she makes with the little tomato chunks and the sour cream layered in… Whatever it is at your house, it’s Sunday, and it all tastes sweeter with a day full of winners.

Minnesota at St. Louis (+10)

Brett “There is an “I” in ‘win’” Favre was every bit as good as he thinks he is last week, making a pretty good Packers team look like Vienna sausages. This week would normally be a let-down game, but this Rams team is so bad that it won’t matter if the Vikings don’t show up 100%. Lay the 10 and take Green Bay.

Oakland at NY Giants (-15.5)

Is there anything better than having the guts to ride out a hot streak for all it’s worth? Most people want to pull some chips back after a few hot hands. We call those people “losers.” Giants have won two in a row for us, but can they make it three with a questionable Eli? Gary Myers of the New York Daily News thinks so. He said backup David Carr “can win this game. Heck, Joe Pisarcik can win this game.” (link). Oakland is terrible and will remain terrible as long as Jamarcus Russell is involved. Let’s make it three covers in a row: Giants -15.5.

New England at Denver (+3.5)

Whoever said Tom Brady was washed up is an idiot. Get ready for the Wes Walker show Sunday afternoon at Mile High – Patriots -3.5.

Indianapolis at Tennessee

Las Vegas seems to be holding on to some shred of hope that Tennessee really isn’t as bad as they looked this year, that this may be the game when they finally step it up at home. The system knows better. The Colts offense is clicking this year and will have no trouble putting away a shaky Titans team. Colts -4.5

New York Jets at Miami (+1.5)

The Jets met their match last week against high-powered New Orleans, but Miami doesn’t have nearly the guns. The key matchup here will be the Jets defense against the Miami ground game. New York should control the line of scrimmage and muscle out a victory in this one: Jets -1.5

WEEKEND UPDATE

Bad news, sports fans. Jimmy has to take a little road trip this weekend. There’s a good chance that come kickoff, I’ll be somewhere that would frown on my usual Game Day indulgence of Smirnoff, Mountain Dew and buckets of buffalo wings and ranch dressing. But don’t you worry – I’ll be keeping a close eye, or at least an ear, on the developments, and if any new winners pop up, I’ll tweet as many as possible, but I apologize in advance if my usual twitter hilarity is stifled somewhat by sobriety.

To recap, here are this week’s winners:

Auburn -2.5 at Arkansas, Noon ET on ESPN

Alabama -5.5 at Ole Miss, 3:30 ET on CBS

Michigan +8 at Iowa, 8 p.m. ET on ABC

Georgia Tech -3 at FSU

LSU +7.5 vs Florida

Minnesota -10 at St. Louis

New York Giants -15.5 vs Oakland

New England -3.5 at Denver

Indianapolis -4.5 at Tennessee

New York Jets -1.5 at Miami

MAIL BAG

Jimmy,

You’re an idiot. I jumped off your bandwagon as soon as Virginia (+13.5) won outright at North Carolina.
- R

R: Quitters are losers. Have fun in loserville.

Jimmy,

That was brilliant picking Nebraska for your TWINNER last night. How’d you know?
- T

T: Pelini coached under Saban – that’s all I need to know.

NFL Week 4; College Week 5

What a miserable, pathetic performance last week. Some gamblers say you should never complain about a push, but that’s nonsense. We play to win. Anything less is unacceptable.

The good news is that after some questionable predictions, the system is due to put out nothing but winners, so I expect big things this weekend. And I mean big, like a craps table when the shooters get hot, really hot, and everybody starts betting and winning more on every roll, and the drinks taste sweeter and the chips pile up in front of you like colorful little markers of your greatness and brilliance for all to see. That’s how big we’re gonna roll this week. All points and no craps, baby, so get on the come line and let’s roll.

After last weekend’s 5-5 bomb, I’m in to The Man for $500 in juice, but I expect to make that back and more before the sun goes down Saturday.

SATURDAY: GETTING IT BACK

“Well, Dick, here’s the deal: I’m the best there is, plain and simple. I mean, I wake up in the morning and I piss excellence. You know, nobody can hang with my stuff. I’m just a,– just a big, hairy, American winning machine.”

- Ricky Bobby

Virginia at North Carolina

The Cavaliers are an impressive 0-3 this year including a home loss to William & Mary (which is actually a college, although Virginia could probably find a way to lose against two people named “William” and “Mary”). These two programs are headed in opposite directions. North Carolina wins BIG: Take the Tar Heels -13.5 over Virginia.

LSU at Georgia

Georgia is a propped up chump. Just like last year, they started the season with a talented team that may have competed in the Eastern division of the SEC, except for Florida of course – don’t be silly, but they’ve lost too many of their O and D linemen to injury. In today’s SEC, you can’t lose starters from the line and compete, especially when you’re consistently one of the most penalized teams in the country. That’s good coaching. Take the Tigers +3.5 – LSU rolls in Athens.

Ole Miss at Vanderbilt

Ole Miss was a top five team last week – which just goes to show you how stupid most of the people covering college football are. Tim Brando said Ole Miss had more talent on paper than Alabama. Good God, man, what are you smoking? Ole Miss has maybe three or four good players and a bunch of second-tier SEC wannabes. Note to Ole Miss fans: Last year is as good as it gets for you. Still, Vanderbilt is Vanderbilt. Take the Rebels -10 and bank it.

Oklahoma at Miami (***DOUBLE-DOWN LOCK***)

Miami is a fraud, a pretender. That Florida State win isn’t looking so great now, is it? Jacory Heisman, meet 9 for 25 for 150 yards with three sacks and an interception. Back to life, back to reality for the ‘Canes. Meanwhile, Oklahoma returns pretty much the whole defense from last year’s team, a defense that will probably hold Miami to negative total yardage. I’d take Oklahoma’s defense alone in a pick ‘em, and I’ll surely take the Sooners -7.5 at Miami. This is my first DOUBLE-DOWN LOCK of the year, and it’s got three stars, so throw down big and bank it.

USC at California

USC is almost never as good as everybody thinks they are when the season starts and almost never as bad as everybody thinks they are after they take their annual loss on the road to a terrible Pacifier-10 team. Against most Pac-10 teams, USC has a 2-1 talent advantage. I’m sure Pete Carroll is a nice, fun guy to hang with, but he’s soft, and his teams are soft. Nick Saban demands more focus and intensity from his housekeepers than Pete Carroll gets out of his players. But everyone can’t be Alabama, and it’s usually about this time of the year when Pete gets his team rolling through second-class teams like the Golden Bears. USC rolls Saturday night – take the Trojans -4.5.

SUNDAY:  THE DAY YOUR BOOKIE SCREAMS

“If you can accept losing, then you can’t win.”

- Vince Lombardi

Let’s face it – Sunday is the day you really want to take it to The Man. I mean, winning on Saturday is great, especially if you can carry a big fat bank of Saturday winnings into Sunday and soothe that hangover by playing all day on house money, just like we plan to do this week. From our commanding position atop a big pile of Saturday’s winners, we roll into the NFL weekend ready to finally TAKE YOUR MAN DOWN.

Baltimore at New England

They’re giving away money, and you don’t even have to stand in line. New England is a sham this year. Brady is over the hill and could barely muster enough points to beat Atlanta’s Swiss cheese defense. Baltimore is for real. Their defense lost half a step from previous years, but their offense is light years ahead. And they’re gunning for the Patriots (isn’t everyone?). Take the Ravens +2 and bank it.

Cincinnati at Cleveland

Is Cincinnati for real? I mean, that fluke play against Denver is the only thing keeping the Bengals – the freakin’ Bengals – from being 3-0. Carson Palmer hasn’t even started moving the ball well, and I don’t think Cleveland could possibly suck any more than they do right now, even though that circus of a coaching staff seems determined to try. Yes, I’m pissed off at you because I picked you last week and you didn’t even show up, but I think the tailspin continues: Take Cincy -6 for an easy win.

New York Giants at Kansas City

The Giants were as good as my word last week at Tampa Bay. I usually avoid the second game of a second consecutive road trip, but last week’s easy win should leave the Giants fresh enough for another business-like road victory against a struggling Kansas City team. I thought Brodie Croyle looked pretty damn good week 1 – the Chief’s go nowhere until they bench their Pac-10 pretender for the SEC contender. Giants -9.

New York Jets at New Orleans (DOUBLE WINNER)

This little thing with Sanchez and the Jets thinking they’re going to do something in the playoffs is cute, isn’t it? I mean, we all know where the Jets will be in January. So let them have their fun. But Sunday in the dome, Sanchez is going to get to see what a real NFL offense looks like. And he’s probably going to get to see a lot of it. The Jets D is due for a colossal collapse, and Drew Brees has made better units than this look like a Pac-10 team. Take the Saints -7 (and your double-winner BONUS pick: OVER 45.5). I think I might Parlay it – I’ll tweet my decision before game time.

Dallas at Denver

Dallas isn’t nearly as good as they hoped they would be, or even as good as most people thought they were coming into the season. Romo is OK, but he’s not a winner. He’s a pretty boy who should spend more time studying the playbook and less time studying the mirror. But the Cowboys are good enough to handle a bad Denver team with little hope of a playoff run. Dallas still has hopes of making the playoffs, where they will of course lose the first game, but they desperately need a win. America’s Team rolls: Cowboys -3.

Green Bay at Minnesota

I considered using my executive veto to overrule the system and exclude this game from the picks. There’s no way any system can configure enough numerical data to accommodate all the emotional story lines in this matchup, and like my mother always told me, “’Mo” is important. Which team has ‘Mo? Right now it’s Minnesota. Quarterback fairy tales aside, Minnesota has a better running game and a better defense. That usually adds up to a “W.” There’s always the risk that Favre gets a little too determined to create victory and throws a half dozen picks – but if he just hands the ball off to AP, the Vikings will roll at home: Minnesota -3.5.

MAIL BAG

Let’s see what some of Jimmy the Geek’s loyal fans and readers had to say this week:

Dear Jimmy,

If the Giants lose, I’m comin’ for you, Book Boy.

- M.

M.: Lose at Tampa Bay? Yeah right. Like that could ever happen. And you’ve got another lock at Arrowhead this week. Eli is the next Peyton, except he’ll have rings (plural) to boot.

Dear Jimmy,

I’m in a Last Man Standing (survivor) pool. Can you help me with my picks?

- F.

Last man standing pools are for suckers. It’s just a bunch of morons throwing money in a pile so some dork who knows nothing about football can get lucky and pay off his credit cards. If you have any sense at all, you’ll avoid pools and make bets against the spread like a real man

PS: I took the Colts. Mama needs a new pair of shoes.

Dear Jimmy,

Can you tell us more about The System?

- S.

S.: This system is a pot of freakin’ gold, and you think I’m going to spill it out right here for all you leeches to suck dry? You’re a moron. Never write to me again.

But I will tell you this: Unlike some of my past systems that all proved unsuccessful eventually, this one is based more on numbers. So it’s numerical, which is like scientific, and it uses computers. Well, it uses just one computer really, but it has lots of complicated formulas and functions and things. I’ve said too much already. Don’t look behind the curtain. Just win, baby.

* For entertainment purposes only. Avoid gambling where prohibited.

* If you think need help, consider www.gamblersanonymous.org

“Come to daddy on the inside straight, well I got no chance of losin’ this time.”
- Loser (Garcia/Hunter)

When the geniuses here at rotoholics.com first asked me to write something for the website, I wasn’t sure I had much to offer. I’ve never participated in any sort of fantasy football, and honestly, I like college football more than the NFL.

But when I found out that a lot of Fantasy players also like to make a friendly wager or two from time to time, the wheels began turning.

I like to bet on sports. A lot. I like to play a lot of games and take mostly favorites. I love parlays, turns & teasers and taking big risks chasing big payoffs. In short, I’m a bookie’s dream. In fact, if I had any money at all to gamble with, I’d probably have people lined up outside my door just for a shot at some of my action.

But let’s face it – this isn’t college anymore. I’m on my own dime now, so gone are the days of scraping by on Ramen Noodles and Hamburger Helper for days after a big loss. I’m no longer able to let a whole weekend’s losses ride on a Monday night parlay only to lose and chase a midnight card game for one last shot at a rally.

Not anymore, my friends. No more losing for me, because Jimmy’s got a new system. Giddy up.

That’s right, after years of consistent losses, I’ve think I’ve finally figured this thing out, and I’m going to turn it around right here before your very eyes on rotoholics.com. So tune in every Friday to see me put my money where my mouth is. I’ll use my new system to pick out a few sure fire winners for the Saturday and Sunday games, and we’ll keep track of how we’re doing as the year progresses.

This Week’s College Locks

“Show me a good loser, and I’ll show you a loser.”
- Vince Lombardi

 Take it to the bank. I’ve looked over the college games, and some of these lines are too good to be true.

I mean, usually the guys in Vegas do a great job setting lines, but I see spreads coming out this week that clearly didn’t take into account all the things I use in my new system. So let’s roll:

South Florida. +14 at FSU

I admit it – I bought into the BYU hype and thought the Seminoles had no chance last week, but Bobby pulled one out of his hat in Provo. Does that mean Florida State is back? They lost to Miami, but maybe that loss isn’t so bad after all. But I’m not buying it. FSU had a huge win on the road last week. Look for the letdown game this week and take S. Florida plus the 14. Lock it down.

LSU -13 at Mississippi St.

LSU’s offense is starting to gel. Mississippi State can move the ball but has no defense. Look for a back-and-forth shootout that may stay close through three quarters, but LSU is too big and strong for this young team under the Tebow’s former offensive coordinator, Dan Mullen, who is trying to take his version Urban’s spread attack to Starkville. Take the Tigers and lay the points. Book it.

Miami -3 at Virginia Tech

Before the season started, most of us saw Miami’s brutal opening schedule and thought 2-2 would be a great start. But now, with two quality wins under their belts over Florida State and Georgia Tech, a red-hot Jacory Harris has the ‘Caines talking about Heisman trophies and national championships. After an opening loss to Alabama, Virginia Tech has rebounded with a cake walk over Marshall and a big home win over Nebraska last week, but they’re no match for Miami. Who knows –we could be headed for a rematch of the 1992 Alabama-Miami national championship game, aka “The Day Gino Toretta’s Football Career Ended.” Take Miami and lay the three on the road, and go ahead and write the “W” beside it right now.

Florida – 21.5 at Kentucky

Kentucky is no good. They barely beat Louisville, home of the vicious-toothed Cardinals (yes, their mean old red-bird mascot actually has snarling teeth for some reason). Florida ran into an orange buzz saw last week when Tennessee shocked everyone by not getting totally destroyed in Gainesville. Urban blamed the flu for his lackluster performance, which prompted Lane Kiffin to pop off and say that he was going to wait until his team played badly and then blame it on the flu. This guy may be good for the SEC after all, even though I still hate Tennessee.

And Tebow was in rare form with his head bobbing up and down in that odd way it always does when he gets really fired up and starts shouting motivation and spittle at his teammates. Florida usually follows a weak performance with a big trouncing the next week, so I think they’ll have this covered by halftime. Blow it up: Gaters -21.5. Put that one in ink.

Notre Dame -7 at Purdue

 Notre Dame is terrible. I can’t remember the last time they won a meaningful game. It’s sad that in 10 years of Irish football, the only thing they have to brag about is playing some good teams close but losing anyway. How sad. At what point will they wake up and realize their coach is a clown? Not this Saturday. I’d take just about anyone getting seven at home against Notre Dame, and that includes the Boilermakers. I might go ahead and start writing post-dated checks on this easy money.*

Washington +8 at Stanford

Oh my gosh, are you kidding me? These line-making idiots apparently missed it last week when Washington embarrassed mighty USC. And now they’re getting points at what, Stanford? To his credit, Jim Harbaugh has done a good job of taking Stanford from the very bottom of the Pac-10 to some place just barely above the very bottom of the Pac-10. But this Sarkesian guy in Washington is genius. He learned under Pete Carroll, so I don’t expect a let-down after last week’s big win, especially on the road against a bottom-tier Pac-10 team. This one is easy money. Washington wins this game straight up. I don’t even need the points, but we might as well take them: Huskies +8. Book it. 

This Week’s NFL Locks

“There’s no ‘I’ in ‘team,’ but there is one in ‘Win.’”
- Brett Favre

 Quite frankly, it’s tougher to beat the man playing NFL games. The lines are tighter. The teams are more evenly matched, and there are only 32 of them so Vegas can keep a pretty tight watch on everything. Luckily, I’ve reviewed all the factors that create big winners, and crunched the numbers through my new system, and I found four plays this weekend that are just too good to be true. So let’s take it to The Man.

Cleveland +13.5 at Baltimore

Baltimore is off to a good start and Cleveland is terrible. So a lesser man might predict a blowout here. Not so fast, my friend. Baltimore just wrapped up a long, cross-country road trip last week to San Diego for a hard fought win over the Chargers. I expect them to come out flat and jet-lagged and let Cleveland stay in the game. This will be a low scoring, miserable game to watch. The Ravens win 13-6 or some such. You might even want to parlay this with the under, which is also a lock, but definitely take the Browns plus 13.5 and book it.

Jacksonville +4 at Houston

Just about everything that was good in Jacksonville has moved to Atlanta. Houston, on the other hand, is led by former Falcon Matt Schaub, whose Virginia Cavaliers are fast becoming the laughing stock of the ACC. How much longer will Jim Groh last if he keeps losing to high school teams? No matter. Jacksonville’s team is as bad as the smell that permeates the city. Take the Texans minus the four.

NY Giants -7 at Tampa Bay

Mike will probably break out in a cold sweat the minute he begins reading this. It may not even make it to print. But the Giants could start the backups and rout Tampa Bay. I mean, have you seen Byron Leftwich lately? He looks like a giant tackling dummy standing back there throwing the ball. I’m shocked every time he gathers the mobility needed for a three-step drop, much less getting out of the way of the Giants’ pass rush. Eli has been on the mark this year, there’s no way Tampa Bay scores more than nine points, and the Giants win big. Lay the seven and book it: Giants, baby.

San Fran +7 at Minnesota

Let’s face it, most of you don’t have Adrian Peterson and would absolutely love to see Mike Singletary and the 49’ers come in and shut him down. Well, I can’t promise that, but I do think it’s about time Favre lit the up the board with five or six mysteriously horrible interceptions. I like what Singletary has going on in the Bay area, and I think this is the week they give the Vikings a run for their money. Take the seven and San Fran.