Our Commish presents last year's trophy. So cheesy... and yet so tantalizing.

Rotoholics conducted our annual league draft this past weekend… time to decide if, for all of our ranting, raving, styling and profiling, we have any ability whatsoever to put our money where our mouths are.

The following is a breakdown of our 8-team draft.

ARE YOU READY? ARE YOU READY? LET’S GET IT ON!!

Is there a better day than Fantasy Football Draft Day? In fact, let me go one further: is there a better day than Fantasy Football Draft Day in sunny Southern California?

We gathered at a friend’s house… I say “house,” but it’s actually more like a local resort and spa. Channeling our hunter-gatherer ancestors, the Men hole up in a secluded war room upstairs, while the Women take the many children and try to keep them from drowning in one of our friend’s three pools.

Our third year for the MVFL features several new enhancements and epiphanies. First of all, I actually come to learn that the MVFL stands for “Mission Viejo Football League.” Second, we have an actual working conference phone this year! For all of the bells and whistles this house offers, it always seemed odd to me that we couldn’t get a phone that didn’t say Fisher Price on it. The fact that we can hear each other is a huge bonus. If you have the means, I highly recommend it.

Third, in addition to the cash prizes that would’ve been awarded if this sort of gambling were legal (ahem), we have actual trophies this year! The trophy is about as cheesy as our past phones, and yet… I am hypnotized when I see it. I have come in third both years, and I fill with an even more fervent zeal than usual by the sight of the little plastic beauty. I must win now and tour the country like I’m holding the Stanley Cup!

The pressure, it seems, is on.

That said, let us commence. Commentary provided by myself and my brother, fellow league member and part-time contributor to this site, Dan Sergott (team name: “Floppin’ the Nuts”).

Ding. Ding.

Round 1

What went down: As I wrote previously (“Taking the Fifth”), I have been racking my brains trying to figure out just what to do with the 5th pick in the draft. Come game time, I consider all the options I laid out in my previous article, but end up pulling an 11th hour switcheroo. Fellow Rotoholics co-founder Ryan Parker (“Hollywood”) and I (“Show Me Your TDs”) shake hands on a deal that will get me the second and fifteenth overall picks for the fifth and twelfth. Ryan is holding out hope that he can grab two of the top four WRs. As Andy Dufresne once said, “Hope is a good thing… maybe the best of things.”

Yeah, I don’t think Andy ever played fantasy football.

Mike’s take: No way I can’t make this deal. Forte is a monster, and someone I probably would’ve taken even if I had pick #1. Things are looking up.

Dan’s take: “F you, you Forte-stealing bastard.”

Whatchu talkin’ bout, Willis McGahee?!? No real surprises in the first round, except maybe Steve Slaton. “I hated the Slaton pick,” says Dan. “I hated him last year too – but this year, reports are that he looks sluggish, they are taking touches away from him, and he’s losing goal line carries. I was staying away from him at all costs.”

Ryan’s take: Up until the draft was about to start, I was still waffling between taking Forte or Fitzgerald at #2.  The moment I decided on Fitzgerald is when I offered the trade.  Since I knew I could still get Fitz at #5, trading just gave me a higher second round pick for free. I actually like the Slaton pick.  Check out his last seven games of last season- 916 all purpose yards – highest in the league.  Quite impressive if you ask me.  (By the way, no one did ask me, but since I have admin rights to the site, I was able to break into this story and write my own comments!)

Round 2

What went down: The eighth team in the league, Ohio, gets two of the four WRs, which wasn’t exactly a secret strategy, as he’d been crowing about it for about two months (ahem… Ryan). Ryan misses out when Andre Johnson is taken third in the round (11th overall). He’s sitting next to me at the draft table, drops his head in disgust and begins thumbing through a Playboy that our host’s wife bought for the group, believing that this was the type of complementary accessory our testosterone-fueled event needed.

Yup, she was right.

My take: How the mighty have fallen, with LT tumbling to 13th overall. My brother is thrilled by his steal and (like me) thinks a healthy LT will be a huge weapon this season. If I hadn’t made my trade, I would’ve grabbed him myself. Also, in a stunning twist, Michael Turner is sitting there at the end of Round 2, staring me in the face.

Michael Turner’s take: “Well, you’ve been bitching about me all pre-season. Here I am. Do you have the guts to take me? Well, do ya, punk?”

My take, Part II: s much as I don’t like that little fat f**ker, I couldn’t pass up that value there. I have a feeling Turner will replace Brian Westbrook as the Player I Love to Hate for 2009.

Ryan take:  What’s up Heidi Montag being in Playboy, but not showing any of the good stuff? What a jip.

Round 3

What went down: Like clockwork, the run on second-tier WRs begins: Jennings, White, Smith and Boldin all go consecutively. Also, the draft equivalent of Where’s Waldo is solved when Brian Westbrook is finally taken.

Mike’s take: Good luck, Tattoo… from someone who sent the stock of Maalox soaring last year with my all too frequent purchases during Philly games last season.

Dan’s take: If Steve Smith wasn’t suspended for two games last year, he’d be considered the third-best wide receiver. The guy just does it every week. I really wanted Wayne or Jennings, but was thrilled to get Smith here.

Whatchu talkin’ bout, Willis McGahee?!? I guess it was inevitable, but Terrell Owens? Really? The guy that missed the entire preseason? The guy that plays for the Bills? The guy that turns 36 in a few months? That guy? Okay… just checking.

  Round 4

What went down: Pretty solid picks overall. The group is hitting our collective stride.

Dan’s take: My draft nightmare. When Ohio was picking, I had three names slotted for my fourth round pick: Manning, Rodgers and Colston. I really thought I was getting Rodgers here. Love him. As a result, I think I got flummoxed and made a mistake. I just don’t like Philip Rivers at all. That said, he’s clearly the next best guy, and their offense looks awesome… at least that’s what I told myself at the time.

Whatchu talkin’ bout, Willis McGahee?!? Dan: “WAYYYYYYY too early for Tony Romo (Diapers) here in my opinion. After Rivers, I was willing to wait until the last round to draft a QB.”

Round 5

What went down: I hate to say it, but once again, can’t find much fault with the picks here. Dan thought it was one round early for Desean Jackson here, but we both really like him, so can’t find much fault with it.

Dan’s take: I badly wanted Vincent Jackson here, all the way from my early mock drafts. The guy has elite WR talent, and that offense is smoking. Only downside is having three guys from one team. Oh well… at least I know who I’ll be staying up to watch on Monday Night Football this year.

Mike’s take: Two of the guys on my wish list both get grabbed in front of me – Ryan Grant and Vincent Jackson. I think the Packers are this year’s Saints, and their offense is just going to steamroll people. Alas, he’s gone. Then, I thought getting Jackson here would give me great starting talent at all five starting spots. Damn! Admittedly frazzled, I take some extra time to ponder and ultimately decide on Kevin Smith. On the plus side, Smith was high on my board and gives me a great trifecta of backs. On the flip side, I probably should’ve grabbed a WR.

Round 6

What didn’t go down: Good to see our strong selection skills aren’t all that long-lived. Let’s just say that IF marijuana was legal, this would’ve been a good time to break it out and smoke to the bejeezus belt. Of course, we’re all responsible adults, so that was out of the question. But IF it were legal, and IF we did it, it might explain a few of the more suspect moves that took place in Round 6.

Dan’s take: Love Eddie Royal. No doubt Orton will be hitting the slot receiver A LOT, and with Marshall a question mark, Royal could go nuts.

Mike’s take: My first “whew” moment. I thought that with the run on TEs starting, Tattoo was a lock to take Witten, who I was salivating at grabbing. The best TE in the league, hands down. I’m a freaking genius.

Whatchu talkin’ bout, Willis McGahee?!? McNabb is a big time reach here – to Dan’s earlier point, you might as well wait until the last round or so to get someone of equal (if not greater value). McFadden? Just not a big fan, and the feeling here is that it ruins a really promising Tattoo team. Wu’s Pigs show some Jets allegiance and grab Keller far too early.

Round 7 

What went down: The first defense is taken, but because it’s the Steelers, no one really offers much in the way of snickers. Dan, the biggest Reggie Bush fan on the planet, gobbles him up here. I would never take him because of the health risk and the fact that when Colston plays, Bush’s numbers go way down. But in Round 7, the upside is too huge to pass.

Dan’s take: I don’t care what people say, Reggie Bush is a steal in Round 7 in our league. He was a top 10 back in our format before he got hurt last year.

Mike’s take: After 6 rounds, we come to my first lukewarm pick. I thought long and hard about taking Pierre Thomas here and having a monster first four RBs. But I started feeling uneasy about my lack of WR power. So I went TJ over Bowe – I just don’t like Bowe. I watched a lot of KC last year because of Gonzalez and Thigpen and the guy drops balls and fades out at times.

Whatchu talkin’ bout, Willis McGahee?!? Larry Johnson and Derrick Ward!!! Yikes. I guess the word didn’t get out that Ward isn’t starting and that Larry Johnson is still Larry Johnson.

Round 8

What went down: Cookies have arrived!! I have a momentary pause and consider the fact that this may not sit well with all the Coronas and… well, other stuff I’ve consumed. But never one to pass up a cookie, I feast.

Um… what was I talking about?

Dan’s take: I just didn’t like anybody enough that I couldn’t get in the next round, so I went defense. I like how this worked out for me – in part because Minnesota gets Cleveland in Week 1.

Mike’s take: Vikes D should be awesome. Love that pick. As for me, I was really hoping for Anthony Gonzalez here – nice pick by Iron Horse ahead of me. So I went Brandon Marshall. If he gets traded, I’ve got a serious point guy. If not, I’ll be dropping his disgruntled ass by Week 2.

Dan’s take, Part II: Good luck. Talk about upside. Unfortunately, I think they’re going to be talking about this guy and upside for the next 5 years.

Whatchu talkin’ bout, Willis McGahee?!? Other than the Vikes, I pretty much hate every pick of this round, including my own. Lee Evans? Marshawn Lynch?

Dan’s take, Part III: Avoiding the Bills was certainly part of my draft strategy. They suck balls. Roy Williams is terrible, too.

‘Nuff said.

Round 9

What went down: You know, we’ve ousted at least one person after each year in our league, and I think it should become a tradition moving forward. It just adds some spice and keeps everyone on their toes. Wu’s Pigs offers his name up for candidacy by taking a kicker in the 9th round.

I don’t care who it is, YOU DO NOT TAKE A KICKER IN THE 9TH ROUND!!!! Say it with me, people, and repeat it like a mantra.

Dan’s take: I think Beanie could be an ace in the hole. If he gets healthy…

Mike’s take: Yep, that was a heartbreaker for me. I wanted Wells big time. Braylon a no-brainer – if he has a comeback year, I’m in good shape. I like Ohio getting Ray Rice here as well – between Beanie and him, could be the steals of the draft.

Whatchu talkin’ bout, Willis McGahee?!? See: Kicker, Don’t F**kin’ Take One Before The Last Round.

Round 10

What went down: Solid picks all around.

Dan’s take: I love Felix Jones, mainly due to the Barber injury factor, but part because he’s just really fun to watch.

Mike’s take: Mmmmm… more cookies.

Round 11

What went down: The Men all decide that for all intents and purposes, the draft will continue for another hour or so. We’re almost done, but none of us wants to go downstairs and help with the kids. The bill is unanimously passed.

Dan’s take: I really like Shiancoe. Favre loves throwing to tight ends, especially in the red zone. I like Ahmad – same kind of upside pick as Felix Jones. Also really like Cutler and Percy Harvin.

Ryan’s clarification:  I didn’t really take Tyler Thigpen here.  I selected Lance Moore, but there was a computer error. 

Round 12

What went down in Round 12: Meh… kickers. Who cares?

IN CONCLUSION…

Dan’s take: All told, there are no real bad teams this year… I thought everyone drafted surprisingly well. Because of the dumbass trade, I actually think Mike had the best draft.

Mike’s take: When he’s right, he’s right. Overall, I felt great about my draft – a little iffy at WR (some talent there, but which one gets going?) but solid everywhere else. I also like Dan’s team a lot if they stay healthy. A few big risks, but worth the tremendous possibilities.

Ah, possibilities… that’s what the draft is all about, right? Time for all of that to become real now.

POST SCRIPT

Wait, Boldin may not play because of a hamstring??

God dammit! My entire draft is ruined!

Yep, just like that it can all change.

Excuse me while I go scour the waiver wire.

****

As Patrick McGoohan said in the Prisoner: I am not a number, I am a free man!

I wish.

To be honest, I feel absolutely trapped in this year’s draft…saddled with the worst possible pick: Number 5.

Millions of fantasy football players right now are shaking their heads as they read this, mumbling “you got that right, brother.”

So this is for all those who have yet to draft their fantasy team and are scratching their heads wondering just what the hell they’re supposed to do with numero cinco.

GOING, GOING…

More than likely, these four guys will be gone by the time you pick:

• Adrian Peterson
• Matt Forte
• Michael Turner
• Maurice Jones-Drew

(and not necessarily in that order)

THE BEST OF WHAT’S AROUND…

That said, let’s take a look at your options…

LaDanian Tomlinson

• Pro: I alluded to him in last week’s column and mentioned how much I like him and that, despite the risk, there is just about as much upside as anyone in the draft. Unlike Westbrook (who, healthy or not, is going to see limited touches to keep the wheels from falling off), I think the Chargers are going to ride a healthy LaDanian. Even LT knows his days are numbered – he’s entering his 30s and the (likely) downside of his career. Personally, I think he gives everything he’s got and (barring injury) throws out some monster numbers.
• Con: Yeah, that whole “barring injury” thing? That’s a pretty big variable. There’s a lot of mileage on those legs. People are making a lot of noise about Michael Turner’s 370 carries last year. Well, Tomlinson has over 3,100 career regular season touches. This guy could pull a hammy the next time he squats on the crapper.
• The bottom line: The guy had over 1,500 total yards and 12 TDs in a down year. If you’re thinking RB in the first round, you could do a lot worse. And even if he flops early on, he’s still strong trade bait, because you know someone will still be enamored with that “dang’it… if he can just get healthy” potential.

DeAngelo Williams

A week ago, I probably don’t consider him for this conversation. However…

• Pros: The dude can run. Is that enough? No? Okay, well how about this: Jonathan Stewart hurt his Achilles tendon (never a good thing to hurt when your job is to run a lot… that would be like me spraining one of my two typing fingers. I shudder even thinking about it) and has missed over two weeks of preseason practices/games. Stewart had 10 rushing TDs last year, so if he can’t play, don’t think Williams can’t handle the expanded role and successfully convert the extra goal line work.
• Cons: There is a good possibility that Stewart will step up, eventually. I don’t think that he’ll be ready for the opener, despite what people are saying – and even if he is, you don’t rush a guy with an Achilles injury back. But at some point, it’s back to a two back system for Carolina.
• Bottom line: A platooning Williams is still better than most guys. And guys with bad Achilles don’t bounce back well.

One of the Big Four WRs

Originally, I wrote “Larry Fitzgerald” here, but changed it. Frankly, the more and more I think about it, the more I’m not so sure he’s the top receiver. I mean, it’s a close race and I don’t think you can go wrong with any one of the Big Four (Fitz, the Johnsons and Moss)… but take a look at this:

• Player A: 214 receptions, 2,992 yards and 20 TDs
• Player B: 221 receptions, 2,827 yards and 23 TDs

Player A is Larry Fitzgerald and Player B is Anquan Boldin. These are their respective numbers over the course of the past three regular seasons when playing together. So, you could potentially grab someone like Williams, Turner (if he drops) or LT in the first round and then Anquan in Round 2/Round 3 (depending on how many teams are in your league) and (theoretically) get almost identical numbers to Larry.

[Note: So, why isn’t Boldin among the top tier receivers, then? Because he, too, is a big injury risk… having played in only 12 games in each of the past two seasons. Oh, and he’s got hamstring issues this preseason.]

• Pro WR at #5: Look, as good as Boldin, Jennings, et al are., they’re not top tier. If you have your heart set on the best  WRs the draft can offer, you’re almost guaranteed to miss out if you pass in the first round. Hell, I’m in an eight team league and I’m almost positive none of them will be there for the 12th pick.
• Cons: If you go WR here, you should still be able to get a solid RB in the second round (think Brandon Jacobs, Clinton Portis, etc.); however, after that, your second RB is going to most likely suck.
• Bottom Line: There’s also the “it’s too early to get a receiver at 5” idea. I think that’s a load of crap, by the way. In a draft loaded with uncertainties, you need to go with your gut and grab who you want – even if it’s a little early. I got killed last year because I waited too long to go WR, and I will not let that happen this year – whether it’s a top tier at 5 or second tier at 12.

Drew Brees

• Pros: Brees is primed for a tremendous season and seems almost too good to pass up on in the first round. Also, consider this: Brees is the ONLY player in NFL history with at least 4,400 yards passing and 26 touchdown passes in three straight seasons.
• Cons: “Primed for a tremendous season and seems almost too good to pass up on in the first round.” Yeah, that’s what we thought about Tom Brady last year. [Of course, you can’t compare people like that, but don’t tell me it’s not in the back of your mind.]
• Bottom line: Forget what I said before – it’s just too darned early to pick a QB at #5. There’s enough QB talent later on and too much need to fill your primary RB/WR needs up front. So, I say no.

[Note: Oh, and don’t you dare even think about taking Brady in the first round this year. Like everyone else, I was hot on him and still think he’s got a huge season ahead. But his injury this past week (to his throwing shoulder, no less) has me scared enough to steer clear. And I know… Belichick said he didn’t take him out of the game because of the injury. I feel so much better now… because Bill’s usually so honest about these things.

Peterson, Forte, Jones-Drew, Turner

What if one of the aforementioned four “sure things” doesn’t go 1-4?

Well, there’s no chance in hell that Peterson falls past two (much less 1). Forte’s stock continues to rise. If he somehow slips to 5 and you don’t take him, you need to quit your league immediately. Jones-Drew? I know, I know… he’s a continual fantasy disappointment. But how many RBs are going to get all of their team’s carries, including goal line opportunities, and have youth on their side? You can’t pass him up.

Turner?

(Sigh)

Sure, some people love him, so I can’t tell you not to. But I will tell you this: not me. I’m staying away. Something’s not right about that little fat f**ker.

SO, WHO WILL I TAKE?

I don’t know.

Honestly, I’m still processing. It’s going to be hard not to scoop up LT if he’s on the board, but I am enamored with the Big Four WRs. It’s 50-50 at this point.

All I know for sure is that next year, I better get a better draft spot. Something really sexy and in a position of power.

Like #6.

A guy can dream, can’t he?

updated August 30, 2009

Dear god, yes. Please. Let’s hope this is the last time I have to use the “F-word” again this season…. If for no other reason than he’s just become so incredibly annoying.

When he quit Green Bay, this is what he said:

“It’s over. I’ve given everything I can possibly give to this organization, to the game of football, and I don’t think I’ve got anything left to give.”

When he imploded during the stretch run last season with the Jets (2 TDs, 9 INTs and endless questionable decisions) and realized he wouldn’t be welcome back because most of the team hated him, here’s what he said:

“I foresee myself getting the impulse to play, but … I could never bring myself to do it. I know I won’t do it.”

Look, I don’t necessarily care about him being a man of his word. Sports is now (has been and forever will be) populated by lying sacks. You just suck now, that’s all. You were a great player for a long time and you were really fun to watch. But all you do is piss on your own reputation – and worse than that, you make me have to watch your sorry ass every Sunday. And I can’t stomach it anymore.

And for anyone who thinks that Brett will take a backseat role to Adrian Peterson and just do enough to help the team by keeping his mistakes in check and not dropping back thirty yards to buy enough time to unleash one of his Madden ’10-type passes, think again:

“I don’t know what I’m going to be asked to do, but I know how to do one thing in particular and that’s be a leader and do things a certain way.”

That was three days into the New era. Oh yeah… that’s got success written all over it.

Stay away from Brett. For the love of all creatures big and small, stay away.

We good?

Whew. Okay. Needed to get that off my chest. Moving on.

Question: In your opinion, do Brian Westbrook and/or LaDanian Tomlinson have anything left in the tank?
B. Westbrook and L. Tomlinson

Ha! I’m not falling for that trap. I know that due to a slight tear in the fabric of reality, Westbrook and I are linked. Whatever I do will inversely affect how he performs this season. I pick him and it’s injuries galore. I let him slip past me and he opens up the season with a 100+ yard, four touchdown game (see: Game 13 of last season when I sat him on Thanksgiving in place of… Darren McFadden. I know, I know… it’s a wonder they let me come back and write for this site).

All right, here goes: if you’re pinning your hopes on Westbrook to be your #1 back, you’re screwed. Too many other options, and you just can’t rely on someone who’s coming off ankle surgery and continues to have flare-ups in his knee. That said, if he falls to mid-second round, it’d be hard to pass on all that potential.

As for LaDanian, call me crazy – I know what my esteemed colleague said in his Caveat Emptor article, but can you really pass him over if you’re picking mid-first round? The Chargers are facing the second best strength of schedule when it comes to run defense this year, and Tomlinson is healthy (so healthy that he’s actually participating in preseason games, which he hasn’t done since 2005). You don’t think this guy wants to come back and have a monster season after a lackluster 2008 (lackluster for him that is – he still had over 1600 total yards and 14 TDs). Sure, you’re taking a risk with all that mileage, but look at all the other question marks in the first round. You telling me they’re not as risky if not more?

Question: What’s with Michael Vick? Can’t we just take him out back and shoot him?
Stella McCartney, PETA

Honestly? No. All of these people sick to their stomachs over Vick’s return need to calm down. The man served eighteen months in a federal prison, destroyed his career and had to file for bankruptcy. Like him or hate him, he’s gone through the system and is now trying to rebuild his life. So cut him a little bit of slack.

As for his fantasy life, I’d say that’s about all but over (for now, at least). Unless, of course, Donovan McNabb goes down with an injury around Week 12 (after Vick’s had some time to play and get back into the swing of things). Then maybe.

Don’t get me wrong – I think he can actually be an offensive catalyst if that team stays healthy, circa Ronnie Brown last year. He can still be a game changer at 29. But don’t draft him and unless you have a giant bench, keep him off your radar for now.

Question: Can the Giants win the Super Bowl this year?
P. Burress, Hoosegow, Upstate New York

As much as it pains me to say this, no. The absence of Burressleaves them unproven at wide received – and while it’s no secret that the Giants’ offensive always has revolved around smashmouth football, the man with the $100 million contract and $2 arm can only succeed if his delicate confidence isn’t rattled. You could see it when Shockey left a couple of years back and Eli suddenly transformed from scared kid to the Little Manning that Could (and Super Bowl MVP). You could see it swing back the other way last season after Burress went out and Eli didn’t trust anyone to haul in his oft-wild throws, so he decided to play it safe.

Is someone going to step up on this team and catch passes? Of course. Steve Smith is your dependable Amani Toomer replacement, Mario Manningham is your downfield burner and Ramses Barden is your tall target who will eventually gain Eli’s trust. But no one worth drafting, by any means.

Bottom line is: the Giants will dominate games with their defense and running, but by the time they get to the playoffs and teams dare Manning to throw, it’s not going to go well for the team.

Glad I don’t root for them… (gulp)

Question: All right – let’s have it, then. Who’s going to the Super Bowl?
T. Coughlin, East Rutherford, NJ

The Pats are cruising back this year. You know it, I know and clearly Vegas knows it judging by the odds they were laying when I was there last week. Remember two years ago when they were piling up all of those “f**k you” scores just to rub it in everyone’s faces after they were pegged as cheaters? Well, now they all have something to prove: they’ve still got to be steaming from having their perfect season ruined by the Giants in the Super Bowl two years ago. Brady wants to come back and take the NFL’s Best QB mantle back from Brees. Moss wants to prove that with Brady back, he’s The Man again. Hell, even Fred Taylor wants to prove what he can do now that Maurice Jones-Drew is out of his way. These guys are going to put up MONSTER points. Brady and Moss might not get as unconscious as they were in 2007, but if you haven’t snatched them up by Round 2, you’re a moron.

The only question is: who the hell shows up as the sacrificial lambs from the NFC? Well, I’ve already written off the Giants. And as much as it absolutely pains me to say this, I’m picking Philadelphia. If those guys stay healthy, they have the offensive weapons (McNabb, Vick, Westbrook, DeSean Jackson, an up-and-coming Brent Celek, Kevin Curtis and potential rookie needle-mover Jermey Maclin) and a defense that keeps them in games (fourth in the NFL last year in yards allowed at 18.1).

Question: What the hell did I do to deserve being put on your colleague’s “2009 Busts” list?? Over 1,500 yards rushing and 14 TDs last season, you f**kheads! What gives?
M. Turner, Atlanta, GA

Sorry to tell you this, Mike, but I’m not your biggest fan either. I know a lot of people have you as high as #2 (and a few really sick ones have you at #1) in other publications and mock drafts being played out across the free world. But in addition to the “370 carry curse” that Ryan mentioned, you are facing the toughest strength of schedule in the entire league this year. That scares the hell out of me. You don’t think defenses aren’t going to stack the box and dare Matt Ryan to beat them? I know he had a great rookie season and has Tony Gonzalez as yet another threat, but I’d rather take my chances with him if I’m a defensive coordinator. Plus, you never catch the ball. I need a little more versatility from my top back.

Oh, and you’re really fat.

Question: I’m back with Kim Kardashian after a brief split. And I’m telling everyone I’m healthy. Oh, and my offense rocks. Where do you see me getting drafted?
R. Bush, New Orleans

Well, that’s kinda the key, isn’t it? You seem healthy, but it’s only a matter of time, Reg. In fact, UI heard you already have tweaked your knee and calf in training camp/preseason. Honestly, I don’t touch you with a ten foot pole (although I do hope to steal Pierre Thomas around the third round. That guy is going to be huge this year). I don’t see you going as anyone’s #2 back (unless it’s a point-per-reception league). Maybe people want an actual, y’know, every down back who doesn’t make you reach for your rosary beads every time he’s tackled. But I’m kooky that way.

Question: Do you like anyone?
Pretty much everyone I meet…

You mean, in life or in fantasy? Let’s assume you mean in fantasy. Well, like I said – I love Brady and Moss for big comebacks this year. I think Tomlinson stays healthy for at least the first half of the year… but you might want to start sniffing around for trade offers around Week 8. I like Clinton Portisand easily think he’s a top back (he was going like gangbusters until that he and that offensive line got banged up last year). However, like Tomlinison, you might want to think about him as trade bait going into the second half.

I also think:

• Darren McFadden and Marques Colston overcome last season’s injuries to have solid (but not great) seasons.
• Tony Romo, now that he’s shed all that dead weight (yes, I’m talking to you, Jessica), will actually focus again and have a great year.
• DeSean Jackson blows up for at least 12 touchdowns.
• Ahmad Bradshaw plays a big role this year – especially when Brandon Jacobs gets hurt (which will happen).
• Donald Brown is your rookie of the year.

…and finally…

Question: What’s with Plaxico Burress? Can’t we just take him out back and shoot him?
Warden Norton, Shawshank Prison

Too late.

This week, Plax accepted a two-year prison sentence for a firearm charge. If you remember, Plaxico was at the LQ nightclub in NYC when he accidentally shot himself in the thigh.

Now, I think Plaxico is a complete moron, but this is particularly harsh. After all, isn’t the pain (and embarrassment) of shooting yourself, as well as getting cut from your cushy NFL job and potentially suspended from the NFL, punishment enough? Was tacking on two years of prison really necessary?

And when he gets to the ol’ hoosegow, do you think that he gets royal treatment for being a Super Bowl hero, or does he start hearing a lot of “hey big man, come over here… I’ll shoot you in the thigh, if you know what I mean…”

Stay, tough, Plax… here’s hoping you don’t come out any wider a receiver than when you went in.

Until next week…

• Trent Edwards - QB – Buffalo Bill
  This year, a maturing Trent Edwards is surrounded by some serious receiver talent… and running back talent for that matter.  Both T.O. and Lee Evans are coming off of 1,000 yard seasons.  With defenses trying their best to stop T.O., Evans should shine facing single coverage.  Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson will keep defenses honest.
• Kyle Orton - QB – Denver Broncos
  Wow, Orton really stunk in the preseason opener.  But, hey, the poor guy is just learning the system and probably a little nervous.  This awful performance will be tough for drafters to forget and most will stay far away… which could spell opportunity for you.  Orton a had a solid season last year with NO receivers to speak of.  This year he has some real dandies.   Locker room drama is sure to break out with Brandon Marshall around, but at least he can catch the ball.  Once Orton gets the hang of the system, he could really shine as your backup QB.
• Matt Hasselbeck - QB – Seattle Seahawks
  This one has some real risk but some serious reward potential.  The Seahawks embark on a cakewalk season facing defenses that are terrible at stopping the pass.  They landed a great receiver in Housh and bring back boy-child Deion Branch who make finally start catching some occasional longer bombs since defenses will need to hone in on Housh.  Great, right?  Well, the problem is keeping Matt upright.  Can the O-Line give him the time to get a good throw off?  Can they keep defensive lineman from turning the rest of his brittle spine into dust?  I don’t know.  I probably won’t draft him, but it could be a home run if picked up at the right spot in the draft.
• Pierre Thomas - RB – New Orleans Saints
  With Reggie Bush back, most will forget about Pierre Thomas.  Recall though that not only is Bush really more of a receiver in disguise, Bush also has glass knees (not to mention coming off microfracture surgery).  Pierre was a second-half of the season savior for many fantasy owners last year and will likely be in position to score big yards and touchdowns on the Saint’s prolific offense – one way or another.
• Ronnie Brown – RB Miami Dolphins
  I think Brown is getting taken a little too low in most drafts. Consider that Brown is now almost two years removed from ACL surgery.  Also, consider that Ricky Williams is older than Moses.  Finally, consider that Brown is in a contract year. Everything is in place for Brown to have a year similar to the way he started 2008.
• Kevin Smith – RB – Detroit Lions
  It’s always a risky move to take a player that is stuck on a crap offense.  How is he going to get touchdowns if they are 4 and out everytime? Well, from the looks of it, the Lions should be a lot better this year (they certainly can’t get any worse).  Calvin Johnson is an unstoppable football diety. Stafford is looking good.  The line is looking a little better.  On this new and improved offense, Kevin Smith is all they got at RB – their is no LenDale White-type-guy that comes in and steals the final five yards of glory.  Oh, and Kevin is a pretty darn good runner to boot.
• Ray Rice – RB – Baltimore Ravens
  McGahee sucks (and has glass knees). McClain isn’t that good. The Ravens have one of easiest schedules for the running game.  Ray Rice is going to be given the opportunity to be the #1 man in Baltimore.  You can get him very late in the draft and he could end up a starter for you later in the season.
• Devin Hester - WR – Chicago Bears
  Cutler loves to throw the ball, and he is good at it.  Someone needs to be there to catch it, so it might as well be Hester. He has had some time to get used to the position and started to look good towards the end of last year.  This is more of a hunch, but I think the Bears offense could end up doing pretty well next year and Hester has huge upside potential as a result.
• Dominick Hixon – WR – New York football Giants
  (see Devin Hester’s explanation above - change “Cutler” to “Manning” and change “good at it” to “ok at it, but very rich”)
• Anthony Gonzalez - WR – Indianapolis Colts
  With Marvin Harrison moving on and Wayne getting older, this is Anthony’s year to step up.  He is a third year receiver which is usually when players start to pull it together and feel comfortable.  Gonzalez is fast as hell and looks funny- what more can you want?

• Matt Cassel - QB – Kansas City Chiefs
  With all of the different fantasy sports websites that are bound to label Cassel as a bust, he may fall a lot further in real drafts compared to where he is going now in mock drafts.  Even there, he is probably overvalued.  He’s a plucky kid with a lotta verve, but just stay away.  Let someone else hope that Rudy Niswanger can get open in the 2 seconds before Cassel is sacked.
  
• Jay Cutler – QB – Chicago Bears
  I think Devon Hester and Greg Olsen will do well this year just because someone has to catch some Cutler’s passes, but it just won’t be enough to keep Cutler a dominant starter. I am staying away from him unless I can get him as a backup.
  
• Thomas Jones - RB – New York Football Jets
  To-Jo is done, people. Last year’s sleeper is this year’s bust.  Once his contract issues are over, he will have nothing to work for. Leon Washington is hungry and talented and The Jets signed Shonne Green who will likely see quality work and even some goal line carries. Prognosis, terminal.
• LaDanian Tomlinson - RB – San Diego Chargers
  After another disappointing season, Tomlinson may have something to prove… but can his banged up body deliver?  I doubt it. With over 2,500 carries, he has been hit more times than Tina Turner.  Late first round at best.
  
• Michael Turner – RB – Atlanta Falcons
  Most drafts are seeing Turner going as the second pick or even the first. This seems too early for me. He had an amazing season, but also carried the ball 376 times. Players that carry the ball that much do not have a good track record for their next season. I am not saying we have another Larry Johnson 2007 situation, but I would definitely take Jones-Drew and Forte above Turner.  (and Fitzgerald)
  
• Deion Branch – WR – Seattle Seahawks
  Branch is an enigma wrapped in a mystery and shrouded by suckiness. Flashes of brilliance cause everyone to pick up Branch one week and drop him the next.  Don’t get caught up in this shame spiral… save money therapy bills and don’t draft this joker.
  
• Antonio Bryant – WR – Tamba Bay Buccaneers
  Tampa is a mess this year. Quarterback questions, O-Line questions, coaching questions, and an improved running game all mean that Bryant will likely see much less of the end zone this year. Temper expectations in a big way.
  
• Marques Colston – WR – New Orleans Saints
  First off, I love Marques Colston. But I think this will be a tough year for him.  Players coming off microfracture surgery generally don’t have an easy go of it.  He will still go high in the draft since everyone is high on Drew Brees.