Quarterbacks

Can’t Miss Starters

Drew Brees NO at TB
Peyton Manning IND at BAL
Ben Roethlisberger PIT at KC

Strong Starters

Tom Brady NE vs. NYJ
Kurt Warner AZ at STL
Brett Favre MIN vs. SEA
Philip Rivers SD at DEN
Matt Schaub HOU vs. TEN
Donovan McNabb PHI at CHI
Carson Palmer CIN at OAK
Eli Manning NYG vs. ATL
Aaron Rodgers GB vs. SF

Mediocre Starters

Matt Hasselbeck SEA at MIN
Tony Romo DAL vs. WAS
David Garrard JAC vs. BUF
Jay Cutler CHI vs. PHI
Joe Flacco BAL vs. IND
Matt Ryan ATL at NYG
Vince Young TEN at HOU
Jason Campbell WAS at DAL

Weak Starters

Josh Freeman TB vs. NO
Jake Delhomme CAR vs. MIA
Matthew Stafford DET vs. CLE
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF at JAC
Alex Smith SF at GB
Mark Sanchez NYJ at NE

Bench Warmers

Chris Simms DEN vs. SD
Marc Bulger STL vs. AZ
Chad Henne MIA at CAR
Matt Cassel KC vs. PIT
Bruce Gradkowski OAK vs. CIN
Brady Quinn CLE

Runningbacks

Can’t Miss Starters

Maurice Jones-Drew JAC vs. BUF
Adrian Peterson MIN vs. SEA
Rashard Mendenhall PIT at KC
Chris Johnson TEN at HOU

Strong Starters

Kevin Smith CLE at DET
Joseph Addai IND at BAL
LeSean McCoy PHI at CHI
Marion Barber DAL vs. WAS
Matt Forte CHI vs. PHI
Bernard Scott CIN at OAK
Marshawn Lynch BUF at JAC
Chris Wells AZ at STL
Tim Hightower AZ at STL
Jason Snelling ATL at NYG
Jonathan Stewart CAR vs. MIA
Ladell Betts WAS at DAL
Cadillac Williams TB vs. NO
Jamaal Charles KC vs. PIT
Steve Slaton HOU vs. TEN
Justin Forsett SEA at MIN

Mediocre Starters

Ryan Moats HOU vs. TEN
Justin Fargas OAK vs. CIN
Michael Bush OAK vs. CIN
Reggie Bush NO at TB
Laurence Maroney NE vs. NYJ

Weak Starters

Mike Bell NO at TB
Jamal Lewis CLE at DET
Ahmad Bradshaw NYG vs. ATL
Darren Sproles SD at DEN
Fred Jackson BUF at JAC
Darren McFadden OAK vs. CIN
Shonn Greene NYJ at NE
Donald Brown IND at BAL
Felix Jones DAL vs. WAS
Correll Buckhalter DEN vs. SD
Chester Taylor MIN vs. SEA

Bench Warmers

Maurice Morris DET vs. CLE
LenDale White TEN at HOU
Kevin Faulk NE vs. NYJ
Derrick Ward TB vs. NO
Tashard Choice DAL vs. WAS
Chris Brown HOU vs. TEN
Danny Ware NYG vs. ATL
Lex Hilliard MIA at CAR
Kolby Smith KC vs. PIT
Willie Parker PIT at KC
Willis McGahee BAL vs. IND
Rashad Jennings JAC vs. BUF

Wide Receivers

Can’t Miss Starters

Andre Johnson HOU vs. TEN
Larry Fitzgerald AZ at STL
Reggie Wayne IND at BAL
Marques Colston NO at TB
Vincent Jackson SD at DEN
Wes Welker NE vs. NYJ

Strong Starters

Roddy White ATL at NYG
Hines Ward PIT at KC
Randy Moss NE vs. NYJ
Sidney Rice MIN vs. SEA
Anquan Boldin AZ at STL
Steve Smith CAR vs. MIA
Steve Smith NYG vs. ATL
Donald Driver GB vs. SF
Calvin Johnson DET vs. CLE
Miles Austin DAL vs. WAS
Chad Ochocinco CIN at OAK
T.J. Houshmandzadeh SEA at MIN
DeSean Jackson PHI at CHI

Mediocre Starters

Nate Burleson SEA at MIN
Mike Sims-Walker JAC vs. BUF
Greg Jennings GB vs. SF
Derrick Mason BAL vs. IND
Brandon Marshall DEN vs. SD
Jerricho Cotchery NYJ at NE
Devin Hester CHI vs. PHI
Steve Breaston AZ at STL
Santonio Holmes PIT at KC
Mario Manningham NYG vs. ATL
Percy Harvin MIN vs. SEA
Nate Washington TEN at HOU
Roy Williams DAL vs. WAS
Bernard Berrian MIN vs. SEA
Jeremy Maclin PHI at CHI
Braylon Edwards NYJ at NE
Donnie Avery STL vs. AZ
Hakeem Nicks NYG vs. ATL
Lee Evans BUF at JAC
Robert Meachem NO at TB
Pierre Garcon IND at BAL
Kevin Walter HOU vs. TEN
Austin Collie IND at BAL
Devery Henderson NO at TB
Laveranues Coles CIN at OAK
Santana Moss WAS at DAL
Michael Crabtree SF at GB
Chris Chambers KC vs. PIT
Malcom Floyd SD at DEN
Terrell Owens BUF at JAC
Johnny Knox CHI vs. PHI

Weak Starters

Mike Wallace PIT at KC
Andre Caldwell CIN at OAK
Bryant Johnson DET vs. CLE
Jason Hill SF at GB
Patrick Crayton DAL vs. WAS
Eddie Royal DEN vs. SD
Torry Holt JAC vs. BUF

Bench Warmers

Mark Clayton BAL vs. IND
Andre Davis HOU vs. TEN
Muhsin Muhammad CAR vs. MIA

Tight Ends

Can’t Miss Starters

Dallas Clark IND at BAL
Brent Celek PHI at CHI
Tony Gonzalez ATL at NYG

Strong Starters

Vernon Davis SF at GB
Antonio Gates SD at DEN
Kellen Winslow TB vs. NO
Greg Olsen CHI vs. PHI
Jeremy Shockey NO at TB
Visanthe Shiancoe MIN vs. SEA
Heath Miller PIT at KC
John Carlson SEA at MIN
Jason Witten DAL vs. WAS

Mediocre Starters

Tony Scheffler DEN vs. SD
Dustin Keller NYJ at NE
Brandon Pettigrew DET vs. CLE
Zach Miller OAK vs. CIN
Fred Davis WAS at DAL

Weak Starters

Marcedes Lewis JAC vs. BUF
Kevin Boss NYG vs. ATL
James Casey HOU vs. TEN
Ben Watson NE vs. NYJ
Donald Lee GB vs. SF
Bo Scaife TEN at HOU

Bench Warmers

Spencer Havner GB vs. SF
Gary Barnidge CAR vs. MIA
David Thomas NO at TB
Todd Heap BAL vs. IND
Casey FitzSimmons DET vs. CLE
Martellus Bennett DAL vs. WAS

Kickers

Just pick one.

Defense

Can’t Miss Starters

Pittsburgh at Kansas City
Minnesota vs. Seattle
Cincinnati at Oakland

Strong Starters

Arizona at St. Louis
Dallas vs. Washington
New Orleans at Tampa Bay
Green Bay vs. San Francisco
Philadelphia at Chicago
San Diego at Denver
New England vs. New York Jets

Mediocre Starters

San Francisco at Green Bay
New York Giants vs. Atlanta
Denver vs. San Diego
Jacksonville vs. Buffalo
Detroit vs. Cleveland

Weak Starters

Baltimore vs. Indianapolis
Houston vs. Tennessee
Indianapolis at Baltimore
Carolina vs. Miami
Tennessee at Houston
Washington at Dallas

Bench Warmers

Cleveland at Detroit
New York Jets at New England
Atlanta at New York Giants
Miami at Carolina
Seattle at Minnesota
Oakland vs. Cincinnati
Buffalo at Jacksonville
Chicago vs. Philadelphia
Kansas City vs. Pittsburgh
St. Louis vs. Arizona
Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans

Tennessee head coach Lane Kiffin did the right thing and kicked the two primary armed robbery suspects off the team. It’s unclear what will happen to the third player involved in the incident or the woman allegedly driving the getaway Prius.

On November 11, the day before the robbery, Kiffin addressed the media and praised his program for not having an off-field incident in the 11 months he had been at the helm. Really? Since then, we’ve also learned that another Volunteer football player, Nyshier Oliver, was arrested four days earlier – on Nov. 7 – for shoplifting a $110 shirt just a few hours before the Memphis game, during which Oliver was taken off the dress team. Is it possible that Kiffin didn’t know about this incident, or was he simply lying to make himself look good during the press conference?

In the Loveliest Village on the Plains, Auburn running back Eric Smith is being sued by an Auburn student for all sorts of troubles allegedly stemming from a fight at a hotel near campus in August. Following the incident, Smith was suspended for two and a half weeks – including the first game of the season – before being reinstated to the team.

Smith and Auburn aren’t saying much about the case, but the plaintiff filed suit in federal court this week claiming that Smith crossed a parking lot and struck the plaintiff in the back of the head – rendering him unconscious – with four police officers as witnesses. There is reportedly video footage available, although nothing official has been released. It doesn’t look good for Smith early on, and the mother of the victim has been on the radio this week ripping Auburn’s coaching staff and administration for the way they handled the matter.

All this while Alabama keeps winning and winning and winning.

And then Sunday, I couldn’t have asked for a better day, going 4-1 on my NFL picks and walking away with full pockets from a day on the boat watching my winners on The Man’s beautiful new TV. If not for the fact that my previous week’s losses paid for it, it would have been just about perfect.

THE RUNDOWN

We started last week early with a split on Friday (1-1), then Saturday was a little better as we closed with two big winners for a 3-2 finish. The aforementioned 4-1 Sunday – our best Sunday of the year – followed with a horrible loser Monday night as the Browns were getting 10.5 and lost 16-0 to the Ravens. It was probably one of the most painful bets I’ve ever had to watch as the pathetic Browns offense kept trying to find a way to muster some points, but it was clear we had no chance without some sort of fluke runback or interception return or something.

All in all, that’s 8-5 for the week: +$2,500 including the commission on the losses, improving our yearly total to -$12,200. Is it just me, or does that number look incredibly lucky? I think it’s a sign, a sign to go big this weekend.

FRIDAY

There’s a three-game slate coming up tonight, but only one game caused enough sparks in The System to generate a play: Big favorite Boise State goes on the road to a struggling Utah State team. Look for the Broncos to pull away late, but Utah St. keeps it close. Take the Aggies +23.5.

SATURDAY

Minnesota at Iowa
Minnesota has lost some heartbreakers and some blowouts this year, but they’ve also found success against some good teams. Iowa has struggled of late, especially since the loss of a starting QB Ricky Stanzi to a sprained ankle. Ricky was famous for not losing the number, but the Hawkeyes haven’t covered since, and it won’t happen this week either. Iowa may end up with the Floyd of Rosedale hog trophy given in this border rivalry each year, but Take the Gophers +10.

Mississippi St. vs Arkansas
Two teams that started the season with a little hope and find their seasons ending with different results. Ole Miss fans still think Nutt is the man for the job, and Bulldog fans have seen enough of Dan Mullen to know their program is headed in the right direction. Look for the offenses to be on display Saturday. It’s a big number, but we’re going to take the over in this one: OVER 60.5.

Florida International at Florida
There should be little of interest in this game except the payoff. We’re going to keep our undefeated college “under” streak alive from Gaineville: Take UNDER 54.

Oklahoma at Texas Tech
Generally overrated Big 12 offenses have lead to some inflated numbers this year, and this game is no different. We’re gonna play the smart side: UNDER 53.

TCU at Wyoming
TCU continues its assault on the BCS with stout defensive play. They should be able to stop a weak Wyoming team consistently enough to secure another UNDER 47.5 in this matchup.

LSU vs Ole Miss
The under train keeps rolling as the SEC defenses start tightening the leash around banged up offenses. Look for this one to stay under the number as well: UNDER 42.5.

Kansas vs Texas
When the dead horse pays money, we beat the hell out of it. So we’re going to keep playing the under in this Big 12 matchup. These teams can score, so this number will probably get bigger by game time. But it’s big enough as it is: UNDER 57.5.

SUNDAY

It’s belt tightening time in the NFL. The playoff picture is still somewhat unsettled, but teams can now see most of what it’s going to take to get there: Wins. Some teams can cruise but need to try to lock down home field advantage, others are staring at must-win games just to make the dance.

What happens with things get tight like this? Games get tighter. Defenses buckle down. Offenses struggle more. Games are closer and lower scoring that the general betting public expects. The System has adjusted to accommodate this trending and has produced another batch of tasty dogs and under for your Sunday winning enjoyment:

• Buffalo +8.5 at Jacksonville
• Kansas City +10 vs Pittsburgh
• Falcons +6.5 at New York Giants
• Seattle & Minnesota UNDER 46.5
• Tampa Bay & New Orleans UNDER 51
• Patriots & Jets UNDER 45
• Chicago +3 vs Philadelphia