Quarterbacks

Can’t Miss Starters

Drew Brees NO at BUF
Aaron Rodgers GB at STL
Peyton Manning IND at AZ

Strong Starters

Philip Rivers SD vs. MIA
Tom Brady NE vs. ATL
Kurt Warner AZ vs. IND
Matt Schaub HOU vs. JAC
Eli Manning NYG at TB
Ben Roethlisberger PIT at CIN
Tony Romo DAL vs. CAR
Joe Flacco BAL vs. CLE
Matt Ryan ATL at NE
Trent Edwards BUF vs. NO

Borderline Starters

Kevin Kolb PHI vs. KC
David Garrard JAC at HOU
Jay Cutler CHI at SEA
Jake Delhomme CAR at DAL

Weak Starters

Seneca Wallace SEA vs. CHI
Jason Campbell WAS at DET
Carson Palmer CIN vs. PIT
Chad Pennington MIA at SD
Mark Sanchez NYJ vs. TEN
Brett Favre MIN vs. SF
Byron Leftwich TB vs. NYG
Shaun Hill SF at MIN
Kyle Orton DEN at OAK

Bench Warmers

Matthew Stafford DET vs. WAS
Kerry Collins TEN vs. NYJ
Marc Bulger STL vs. GB
Brady Quinn CLE at BAL
JaMarcus Russell OAK vs. DEN
Matt Cassel KC at PHI

Runningbacks

Can’t Miss Starters

Adrian Peterson MIN vs. SF
Maurice Jones-Drew JAC at HOU
Fred Jackson BUF vs. NO
Ryan Grant GB at STL
Clinton Portis WAS at DET

Strong Starters

Steven Jackson STL vs. GB
Matt Forte CHI at SEA
Michael Turner ATL at NE
Brandon Jacobs NYG at TB
Ronnie Brown MIA at SD
Steve Slaton HOU vs. JAC
Tim Hightower AZ vs. IND
Marion Barber (or Felix Jones if Barber is out) DAL vs. CAR
Darren Sproles SD vs. MIA
DeAngelo Williams CAR at DAL

Borderline Starters

Chris Johnson TEN vs. NYJ
Pierre Thomas NO at BUF
Kevin Smith DET vs. WAS
Frank Gore SF at MIN
Larry Johnson KC at PHI
Joseph Addai IND at AZ
Cadillac Williams TB vs. NYG
Willis McGahee BAL vs. CLE
Thomas Jones NYJ vs. TEN
Cedric Benson CIN vs. PIT
Darren McFadden OAK vs. DEN
Ray Rice BAL vs. CLE

Weak Starters

Knowshon Moreno DEN at OAK
Willie Parker PIT at CIN
Brian Westbrook (if he plays) PHI vs. KC
LaDainian Tomlinson (if he plays) SD vs. MIA
Julius Jones SEA vs. CHI
Reggie Bush NO at BUF
Derrick Ward TB vs. NYG
LeSean McCoy PHI vs. KC
Leon Washington NYJ vs. TEN
Ricky Williams MIA at SD
Ahmad Bradshaw NYG at TB
Chris Wells AZ vs. IND
Jonathan Stewart CAR at DAL
Chester Taylor MIN vs. SF
Tashard Choice DAL vs. CAR
Rashard Mendenhall PIT at CIN
Donald Brown IND at AZ
Correll Buckhalter DEN at OAK

Bench Warmers

Fred Taylor NE vs. ATL
Mike Bell NO at BUF
Michael Bush OAK vs. DEN
Jamal Lewis CLE at BAL
Justin Forsett SEA vs. CHI
Laurence Maroney NE vs. ATL

Wide Receivers

Can’t Miss Starters

Larry Fitzgerald AZ vs. IND
Andre Johnson HOU vs. JAC
Randy Moss NE vs. ATL
Calvin Johnson DET vs. WAS
Reggie Wayne IND at AZ
Marques Colston NO at BUF

Strong Starters

Steve Smith CAR at DAL
Greg Jennings GB at STL
Anquan Boldin AZ vs. IND
Roddy White ATL at NE
Vincent Jackson SD vs. MIA
Terrell Owens BUF vs. NO
Chad Johnson CIN vs. PIT
Santonio Holmes PIT at CIN
Donald Driver GB at STL
Roy Williams DAL vs. CAR
Mario Manningham NYG at TB
T.J. Houshmandzadeh SEA vs. CHI
Jerricho Cotchery NYJ vs. TEN
Hines Ward PIT at CIN
Steven Smith NYG at TB
DeSean Jackson PHI vs. KC

Borderline Starters

Braylon Edwards CLE at BAL
Laurent Robinson STL vs. GB
Devery Henderson NO at BUF
Percy Harvin MIN vs. SF
Dwayne Bowe KC at PHI
Nate Burleson SEA vs. CHI
Derrick Mason BAL vs. CLE
Torry Holt JAC at HOU
Lee Evans BUF vs. NO
Johnny Knox CHI at SEA
Chris Henry CIN vs. PIT
Brandon Marshall DEN at OAK
Patrick Crayton DAL vs. CAR
Devin Hester CHI at SEA
Antwaan Randle El WAS at DET
Lance Moore NO at BUF
Steve Breaston AZ vs. IND
Santana Moss WAS at DET

Weak Starters

Eddie Royal DEN at OAK
Isaac Bruce SF at MIN
Mark Clayton BAL vs. CLE
Donnie Avery STL vs. GB
Ted Ginn MIA at SD
Wes Welker NE vs. ATL
Jason Avant PHI vs. KC
Earl Bennett CHI at SEA
Mike Sims-Walker JAC at HOU
Bernard Berrian MIN vs. SF
Davone Bess MIA at SD
Justin Gage TEN vs. NYJ
Laveranues Coles CIN vs. PIT
Jacoby Jones HOU vs. JAC
Chansi Stuckey NYJ vs. TEN
Pierre Garcon IND at AZ

Bench Warmers

Kenny Britt TEN vs. NYJ
Sidney Rice MIN vs. SF
Josh Cribbs CLE at BAL
Michael Clayton TB vs. NYG
Robert Meachem NO at BUF
Muhsin Muhammad CAR at DAL
Julian Edelman NE vs. ATL
Austin Collie IND at AZ
Nate Washington TEN vs. NYJ
Brandon Stokley DEN at OAK
Mark Bradley KC at PHI
Michael Jenkins ATL at NE
Louis Murphy OAK vs. DEN
Miles Austin DAL vs. CAR
Chris Chambers SD vs. MIA

“Come to daddy on the inside straight, well I got no chance of losin’ this time.”
- Loser (Garcia/Hunter)

When the geniuses here at rotoholics.com first asked me to write something for the website, I wasn’t sure I had much to offer. I’ve never participated in any sort of fantasy football, and honestly, I like college football more than the NFL.

But when I found out that a lot of Fantasy players also like to make a friendly wager or two from time to time, the wheels began turning.

I like to bet on sports. A lot. I like to play a lot of games and take mostly favorites. I love parlays, turns & teasers and taking big risks chasing big payoffs. In short, I’m a bookie’s dream. In fact, if I had any money at all to gamble with, I’d probably have people lined up outside my door just for a shot at some of my action.

But let’s face it – this isn’t college anymore. I’m on my own dime now, so gone are the days of scraping by on Ramen Noodles and Hamburger Helper for days after a big loss. I’m no longer able to let a whole weekend’s losses ride on a Monday night parlay only to lose and chase a midnight card game for one last shot at a rally.

Not anymore, my friends. No more losing for me, because Jimmy’s got a new system. Giddy up.

That’s right, after years of consistent losses, I’ve think I’ve finally figured this thing out, and I’m going to turn it around right here before your very eyes on rotoholics.com. So tune in every Friday to see me put my money where my mouth is. I’ll use my new system to pick out a few sure fire winners for the Saturday and Sunday games, and we’ll keep track of how we’re doing as the year progresses.

This Week’s College Locks

“Show me a good loser, and I’ll show you a loser.”
- Vince Lombardi

 Take it to the bank. I’ve looked over the college games, and some of these lines are too good to be true.

I mean, usually the guys in Vegas do a great job setting lines, but I see spreads coming out this week that clearly didn’t take into account all the things I use in my new system. So let’s roll:

South Florida. +14 at FSU

I admit it – I bought into the BYU hype and thought the Seminoles had no chance last week, but Bobby pulled one out of his hat in Provo. Does that mean Florida State is back? They lost to Miami, but maybe that loss isn’t so bad after all. But I’m not buying it. FSU had a huge win on the road last week. Look for the letdown game this week and take S. Florida plus the 14. Lock it down.

LSU -13 at Mississippi St.

LSU’s offense is starting to gel. Mississippi State can move the ball but has no defense. Look for a back-and-forth shootout that may stay close through three quarters, but LSU is too big and strong for this young team under the Tebow’s former offensive coordinator, Dan Mullen, who is trying to take his version Urban’s spread attack to Starkville. Take the Tigers and lay the points. Book it.

Miami -3 at Virginia Tech

Before the season started, most of us saw Miami’s brutal opening schedule and thought 2-2 would be a great start. But now, with two quality wins under their belts over Florida State and Georgia Tech, a red-hot Jacory Harris has the ‘Caines talking about Heisman trophies and national championships. After an opening loss to Alabama, Virginia Tech has rebounded with a cake walk over Marshall and a big home win over Nebraska last week, but they’re no match for Miami. Who knows –we could be headed for a rematch of the 1992 Alabama-Miami national championship game, aka “The Day Gino Toretta’s Football Career Ended.” Take Miami and lay the three on the road, and go ahead and write the “W” beside it right now.

Florida – 21.5 at Kentucky

Kentucky is no good. They barely beat Louisville, home of the vicious-toothed Cardinals (yes, their mean old red-bird mascot actually has snarling teeth for some reason). Florida ran into an orange buzz saw last week when Tennessee shocked everyone by not getting totally destroyed in Gainesville. Urban blamed the flu for his lackluster performance, which prompted Lane Kiffin to pop off and say that he was going to wait until his team played badly and then blame it on the flu. This guy may be good for the SEC after all, even though I still hate Tennessee.

And Tebow was in rare form with his head bobbing up and down in that odd way it always does when he gets really fired up and starts shouting motivation and spittle at his teammates. Florida usually follows a weak performance with a big trouncing the next week, so I think they’ll have this covered by halftime. Blow it up: Gaters -21.5. Put that one in ink.

Notre Dame -7 at Purdue

 Notre Dame is terrible. I can’t remember the last time they won a meaningful game. It’s sad that in 10 years of Irish football, the only thing they have to brag about is playing some good teams close but losing anyway. How sad. At what point will they wake up and realize their coach is a clown? Not this Saturday. I’d take just about anyone getting seven at home against Notre Dame, and that includes the Boilermakers. I might go ahead and start writing post-dated checks on this easy money.*

Washington +8 at Stanford

Oh my gosh, are you kidding me? These line-making idiots apparently missed it last week when Washington embarrassed mighty USC. And now they’re getting points at what, Stanford? To his credit, Jim Harbaugh has done a good job of taking Stanford from the very bottom of the Pac-10 to some place just barely above the very bottom of the Pac-10. But this Sarkesian guy in Washington is genius. He learned under Pete Carroll, so I don’t expect a let-down after last week’s big win, especially on the road against a bottom-tier Pac-10 team. This one is easy money. Washington wins this game straight up. I don’t even need the points, but we might as well take them: Huskies +8. Book it. 

This Week’s NFL Locks

“There’s no ‘I’ in ‘team,’ but there is one in ‘Win.’”
- Brett Favre

 Quite frankly, it’s tougher to beat the man playing NFL games. The lines are tighter. The teams are more evenly matched, and there are only 32 of them so Vegas can keep a pretty tight watch on everything. Luckily, I’ve reviewed all the factors that create big winners, and crunched the numbers through my new system, and I found four plays this weekend that are just too good to be true. So let’s take it to The Man.

Cleveland +13.5 at Baltimore

Baltimore is off to a good start and Cleveland is terrible. So a lesser man might predict a blowout here. Not so fast, my friend. Baltimore just wrapped up a long, cross-country road trip last week to San Diego for a hard fought win over the Chargers. I expect them to come out flat and jet-lagged and let Cleveland stay in the game. This will be a low scoring, miserable game to watch. The Ravens win 13-6 or some such. You might even want to parlay this with the under, which is also a lock, but definitely take the Browns plus 13.5 and book it.

Jacksonville +4 at Houston

Just about everything that was good in Jacksonville has moved to Atlanta. Houston, on the other hand, is led by former Falcon Matt Schaub, whose Virginia Cavaliers are fast becoming the laughing stock of the ACC. How much longer will Jim Groh last if he keeps losing to high school teams? No matter. Jacksonville’s team is as bad as the smell that permeates the city. Take the Texans minus the four.

NY Giants -7 at Tampa Bay

Mike will probably break out in a cold sweat the minute he begins reading this. It may not even make it to print. But the Giants could start the backups and rout Tampa Bay. I mean, have you seen Byron Leftwich lately? He looks like a giant tackling dummy standing back there throwing the ball. I’m shocked every time he gathers the mobility needed for a three-step drop, much less getting out of the way of the Giants’ pass rush. Eli has been on the mark this year, there’s no way Tampa Bay scores more than nine points, and the Giants win big. Lay the seven and book it: Giants, baby.

San Fran +7 at Minnesota

Let’s face it, most of you don’t have Adrian Peterson and would absolutely love to see Mike Singletary and the 49’ers come in and shut him down. Well, I can’t promise that, but I do think it’s about time Favre lit the up the board with five or six mysteriously horrible interceptions. I like what Singletary has going on in the Bay area, and I think this is the week they give the Vikings a run for their money. Take the seven and San Fran.

What’s more likely to happen – a post-Pats hangover for the J-E-T-S defense, or the saw to last week’s see for Chris Johnson?
- Salivating C. Johnson owners

Is it a copout to say a little bit of both? Well, tough teats.

Actually, I think the fact that the Titans team come into the Meadowlands 0-2 only makes them sloppy rather than dangerous. The Jets are going to make Collins beat them and give those RBs fits. It’ll translate into turnovers for the Jets, limited output for Johnson and a 3-0 start for Greenies (don’t worry, though – they get New Orleans after that on the road. Talk about a bloodbath). You have to start Johnson, but don’t expect even a quarter of the fantasy points he got last week.

When am I going to turn this nightmare around?
- M. Forte

It better be soon, you bastard. On the make-lemonade-out-of-dog-crap side, Forte has faced some tough defenses (Green Bay and Pittsburgh) to open the season and is still feeling his way around with Jay Cutler. The schedule gets much easier from here on in, with Seattle on deck. The Seahawks gave up 207 yards on 16 carries on Sunday, so Forte should be salivating.

On the if-it-looks-like-dog-crap-and-smells-like-dog-crap-it-must-be-forte side, he has looked absolutely brutal in those first two games, averaging 2.2 yards a carry and getting stopped behind the line of scrimmage a lot. Also, Cutler doesn’t exactly seemed thrilled about the idea of checking down to him when his receivers are covered.

Honestly, I still think this can be chalked up to a slow start, and that good things are just around the corner. You just wait.

Um… just so you know, the Packers defense ain’t all that good. See Week 2 as People’s Exhibit A.
- C. Benson (29 carries, 141 yards)

(Sigh) Bite me.

What’s up with these Giants wide receivers? They’re not actually good… are they?
- Inmate #17, Riker’s Island Correctional Facility

Well, Winston Wolf just called and said to temper our collective excitement (he didn’t use those exact words, but you get the gist). It’s clear that opposing defenses are stacking the box in attempt to squash that run game and dare Eli to beat them. If he continues to do just that, the safeties and linebackers will have to back off – meaning more running and less passing (aka The Giant Way).

But in the meantime, hard not to like what you’re seeing from both guys. The most important thing is Eli has two guys he can trust. Did you see him in that two minute drill? He was as calm as ever.

Manningham looks like he has big play ability – he can make guys miss really well on screens and also shift into a higher gear when running downfield (as he did on Sunday night). After two weeks, he’s 6th in the league in receptions and 3rd in receiving yards (and only eight off the lead). Between him and Steve Smith, Eli has two sure handed options that can run great routes and get open.

Speaking of which, Smith looks awesome. He leads the league in catches and receiving yards and has been targeted 21 times (5th in the NFL). He looks like he could be making that third-year leap that seems to be such a big milestone for WRs. My only concern about Smith is he’s more of a possession receiver – I don’t see him getting into the end zone as much. If you’re in a PPR league, great pickup, though.

Just keep in mind that those numbers are wildly high for a Giants WR, let alone two, and that things will return to a more run-dominated attack soon.

Do you think Tim Hightower sold his soul outright, or did he win some sort of fiddling contest with the devil a la Johnny?
- Chris Wells, Arizona

Hang in there, Beanie. Your time is coming.

What possible reason could Minnesota have for not running Adrian Peterson on the goal line every single time. No one can stop that freakin’ guy!
- Jadrien Leterson, St. Paul, MN

I have no idea. Maybe that feel they need to appease Favre and give him a few opportunities to put numbers up. Of course, that doesn’t explain why they ran their fullback from the one on Sunday on first down (and ultimately scored on a pass to TE Shiancoe). It’s inexplicable why they don’t let the guy run it more down there. Of course, it probably saved me from a fantasy loss yesterday, so I can’t complain too much.

You regretting trading me yet? I had 105 yards and a touchdown!
- Mike Turner, Atlanta

I’ll tell you what, fat boy. You score double digits in fantasy points next week against New England and I’ll write an entire column dedicated to how great you are. Keep picking on bad defenses (nothing wrong with that)… but show me one solid performance against a good D and I’ll eat my words.

Do you get the feeling that Aaron Rodgers is a bit of a deer in the headlights when the pressure builds? He’s a crappy late-game performer and has looked weak so far this year.
- B. Favruh, Minneapolis

I’m a little concerned about Rodgers to tell you the truth. He’s going to put up his fantasy numbers, but he’s folding under the pressure like Romo does. He’s got a soft game next week against St. Louis, and I think he’s going to take it out on them pretty badly (who knows… maybe Jennings will even record a catch). But I say he lays a big fat egg against his predecessor in the game after that.

How bad a coach am I?
- Wade from Texas

Bad. Really, really bad.

You were so concerned about using a timeout to freeze the Giants kicker… ever think of exercising one or two as the Giants were marching downfield to give yourself some time if you got the ball back?

Also, when you try to freeze a kicker, you should do it before play starts, moron. You’re supposed to make them think about it a little longer – not get a practice kick.

Well done.