NFL Week 4; College Week 5

What a miserable, pathetic performance last week. Some gamblers say you should never complain about a push, but that’s nonsense. We play to win. Anything less is unacceptable.

The good news is that after some questionable predictions, the system is due to put out nothing but winners, so I expect big things this weekend. And I mean big, like a craps table when the shooters get hot, really hot, and everybody starts betting and winning more on every roll, and the drinks taste sweeter and the chips pile up in front of you like colorful little markers of your greatness and brilliance for all to see. That’s how big we’re gonna roll this week. All points and no craps, baby, so get on the come line and let’s roll.

After last weekend’s 5-5 bomb, I’m in to The Man for $500 in juice, but I expect to make that back and more before the sun goes down Saturday.

SATURDAY: GETTING IT BACK

“Well, Dick, here’s the deal: I’m the best there is, plain and simple. I mean, I wake up in the morning and I piss excellence. You know, nobody can hang with my stuff. I’m just a,– just a big, hairy, American winning machine.”

- Ricky Bobby

Virginia at North Carolina

The Cavaliers are an impressive 0-3 this year including a home loss to William & Mary (which is actually a college, although Virginia could probably find a way to lose against two people named “William” and “Mary”). These two programs are headed in opposite directions. North Carolina wins BIG: Take the Tar Heels -13.5 over Virginia.

LSU at Georgia

Georgia is a propped up chump. Just like last year, they started the season with a talented team that may have competed in the Eastern division of the SEC, except for Florida of course – don’t be silly, but they’ve lost too many of their O and D linemen to injury. In today’s SEC, you can’t lose starters from the line and compete, especially when you’re consistently one of the most penalized teams in the country. That’s good coaching. Take the Tigers +3.5 – LSU rolls in Athens.

Ole Miss at Vanderbilt

Ole Miss was a top five team last week – which just goes to show you how stupid most of the people covering college football are. Tim Brando said Ole Miss had more talent on paper than Alabama. Good God, man, what are you smoking? Ole Miss has maybe three or four good players and a bunch of second-tier SEC wannabes. Note to Ole Miss fans: Last year is as good as it gets for you. Still, Vanderbilt is Vanderbilt. Take the Rebels -10 and bank it.

Oklahoma at Miami (***DOUBLE-DOWN LOCK***)

Miami is a fraud, a pretender. That Florida State win isn’t looking so great now, is it? Jacory Heisman, meet 9 for 25 for 150 yards with three sacks and an interception. Back to life, back to reality for the ‘Canes. Meanwhile, Oklahoma returns pretty much the whole defense from last year’s team, a defense that will probably hold Miami to negative total yardage. I’d take Oklahoma’s defense alone in a pick ‘em, and I’ll surely take the Sooners -7.5 at Miami. This is my first DOUBLE-DOWN LOCK of the year, and it’s got three stars, so throw down big and bank it.

USC at California

USC is almost never as good as everybody thinks they are when the season starts and almost never as bad as everybody thinks they are after they take their annual loss on the road to a terrible Pacifier-10 team. Against most Pac-10 teams, USC has a 2-1 talent advantage. I’m sure Pete Carroll is a nice, fun guy to hang with, but he’s soft, and his teams are soft. Nick Saban demands more focus and intensity from his housekeepers than Pete Carroll gets out of his players. But everyone can’t be Alabama, and it’s usually about this time of the year when Pete gets his team rolling through second-class teams like the Golden Bears. USC rolls Saturday night – take the Trojans -4.5.

SUNDAY:  THE DAY YOUR BOOKIE SCREAMS

“If you can accept losing, then you can’t win.”

- Vince Lombardi

Let’s face it – Sunday is the day you really want to take it to The Man. I mean, winning on Saturday is great, especially if you can carry a big fat bank of Saturday winnings into Sunday and soothe that hangover by playing all day on house money, just like we plan to do this week. From our commanding position atop a big pile of Saturday’s winners, we roll into the NFL weekend ready to finally TAKE YOUR MAN DOWN.

Baltimore at New England

They’re giving away money, and you don’t even have to stand in line. New England is a sham this year. Brady is over the hill and could barely muster enough points to beat Atlanta’s Swiss cheese defense. Baltimore is for real. Their defense lost half a step from previous years, but their offense is light years ahead. And they’re gunning for the Patriots (isn’t everyone?). Take the Ravens +2 and bank it.

Cincinnati at Cleveland

Is Cincinnati for real? I mean, that fluke play against Denver is the only thing keeping the Bengals – the freakin’ Bengals – from being 3-0. Carson Palmer hasn’t even started moving the ball well, and I don’t think Cleveland could possibly suck any more than they do right now, even though that circus of a coaching staff seems determined to try. Yes, I’m pissed off at you because I picked you last week and you didn’t even show up, but I think the tailspin continues: Take Cincy -6 for an easy win.

New York Giants at Kansas City

The Giants were as good as my word last week at Tampa Bay. I usually avoid the second game of a second consecutive road trip, but last week’s easy win should leave the Giants fresh enough for another business-like road victory against a struggling Kansas City team. I thought Brodie Croyle looked pretty damn good week 1 – the Chief’s go nowhere until they bench their Pac-10 pretender for the SEC contender. Giants -9.

New York Jets at New Orleans (DOUBLE WINNER)

This little thing with Sanchez and the Jets thinking they’re going to do something in the playoffs is cute, isn’t it? I mean, we all know where the Jets will be in January. So let them have their fun. But Sunday in the dome, Sanchez is going to get to see what a real NFL offense looks like. And he’s probably going to get to see a lot of it. The Jets D is due for a colossal collapse, and Drew Brees has made better units than this look like a Pac-10 team. Take the Saints -7 (and your double-winner BONUS pick: OVER 45.5). I think I might Parlay it – I’ll tweet my decision before game time.

Dallas at Denver

Dallas isn’t nearly as good as they hoped they would be, or even as good as most people thought they were coming into the season. Romo is OK, but he’s not a winner. He’s a pretty boy who should spend more time studying the playbook and less time studying the mirror. But the Cowboys are good enough to handle a bad Denver team with little hope of a playoff run. Dallas still has hopes of making the playoffs, where they will of course lose the first game, but they desperately need a win. America’s Team rolls: Cowboys -3.

Green Bay at Minnesota

I considered using my executive veto to overrule the system and exclude this game from the picks. There’s no way any system can configure enough numerical data to accommodate all the emotional story lines in this matchup, and like my mother always told me, “’Mo” is important. Which team has ‘Mo? Right now it’s Minnesota. Quarterback fairy tales aside, Minnesota has a better running game and a better defense. That usually adds up to a “W.” There’s always the risk that Favre gets a little too determined to create victory and throws a half dozen picks – but if he just hands the ball off to AP, the Vikings will roll at home: Minnesota -3.5.

MAIL BAG

Let’s see what some of Jimmy the Geek’s loyal fans and readers had to say this week:

Dear Jimmy,

If the Giants lose, I’m comin’ for you, Book Boy.

- M.

M.: Lose at Tampa Bay? Yeah right. Like that could ever happen. And you’ve got another lock at Arrowhead this week. Eli is the next Peyton, except he’ll have rings (plural) to boot.

Dear Jimmy,

I’m in a Last Man Standing (survivor) pool. Can you help me with my picks?

- F.

Last man standing pools are for suckers. It’s just a bunch of morons throwing money in a pile so some dork who knows nothing about football can get lucky and pay off his credit cards. If you have any sense at all, you’ll avoid pools and make bets against the spread like a real man

PS: I took the Colts. Mama needs a new pair of shoes.

Dear Jimmy,

Can you tell us more about The System?

- S.

S.: This system is a pot of freakin’ gold, and you think I’m going to spill it out right here for all you leeches to suck dry? You’re a moron. Never write to me again.

But I will tell you this: Unlike some of my past systems that all proved unsuccessful eventually, this one is based more on numbers. So it’s numerical, which is like scientific, and it uses computers. Well, it uses just one computer really, but it has lots of complicated formulas and functions and things. I’ve said too much already. Don’t look behind the curtain. Just win, baby.

* For entertainment purposes only. Avoid gambling where prohibited.

* If you think need help, consider www.gamblersanonymous.org

I’d like to kick off this week’s column by officially welcoming our newest contributor, Jimmy Doo. “J-Doo” is an important addition to the Rotoholics family. Frankly, we haven’t been the same since our “By the Numbers” guy, Dan Sergott, was lost to… well, to a really bad case of I-can’t-do-shit-itis.

Jimmy’s got out of the gate strong in his debut, with a great call of South Florida putting the ball where the oranges don’t grow at FSU. The rest of his Saturday could be described as uneven, I suppose. I can only imagine that the Smirnoff & Mountain Dew wasn’t going down smoothly as he gagged on Miami and Washington’s respective ass-kickings. But can’t fault him too much – he finished Saturday with a 3-3 record* and rebounded well on Sunday with a 3-1 record with his pro bets.

[Editor’s note: Yes, 3-3. I know it looks like 2-4, but I think he meant to bet Purdue over ND given the description he wrote. That’s actually my fault – as his editor, I should’ve caught that.]

Anyway, welcome aboard, Jimmy. Now, on to a little fantasy recap of the past weekend that was.

It’s like I always say – when you’re down a touchdown with less than two minutes to play, the guy I want with the ball is Seneca Wallace.

Clearly Mark Sanchez doesn’t watch SportsCenter, otherwise he might have seen replays of McNabb and Hasselback getting Mallachi Crunched at the goal line stretching for touchdowns. Not only did the Dirty One go for broke, he lowered his head in the process, just waiting to perfect his Darryl Stingley impression. Dude, take it easy. Wait for me to own you in fantasy before you wreck your body. That’s what everyone else does.

If you were an NFL head coach, would you keep that red replay flag buried in your sock? Bill Belichick almost fell over on Sunday trying to dig that thing out and get a challenge in before the next play started. I mean, it’s not like he doesn’t want to ruin the lining of his silk suit jacket or mess up the crease in his pants. The guy dresses more casually than I do on Sundays. He can’t put it in one of those big ol’ sweatshirt pockets? For a Wile E. Coyote-level supergenius, sometimes that guy baffles me (see: Bowl, Super; New York Giants; 6:49 to go in 3rd quarter; leading 7-3; decision to go for it on 4th and 13 instead of try a 49-yard FG. Not that I’m complaining…).

Dear Detroit: You have one too many Johnsons at wide receiver. There were multiple occasions on Sunday where I thought I had points (including six for a TD) only to realize it was Bryant and not Calvin (yes, I know… Calvin is 81. But when they dive for the ball and have defensive backs toppling over them, it’s hard to tell right away). Please address this. Maybe one of them can turn Muslim and change his name? I heard athletes like to do that.

I’ve spent the past two years hating The Gimp so much that plays like that game winner against San Francisco gave me memory whiplash to the days when I thought he was the best player on earth. It actually pains me to admit it, but that was freaking fun to watch.

Five Guys You Should be Thinking about Picking Up This Week

• Glen Coffee – Perk your ears up! Get him while he’s hot! Add a jolt of coffee to your offense! Prepare to hear this all week from fantasy sites!
• Mike Sims-Walker – Look, I know you hate David Garrard. I hate David Garrard. Even David Garrard hates David Garrard. But Mike Sims-Walker is good, and he’s only owned in about 40% of leagues.
• Pierre Garcon – Reggie Wayne’s new sidekick is wicked fast and Manning likes throwing. A lot. I’m just saying.
• Nate Burleson – TJ Housh is dead to me.
• Tashard Choice – who knows what’s going on with the Dallas RB situation. All you need to know is that they create holes for whoever is running.

Three Guys That Aren’t Going to Cut It… No, Really… I Know You Drafted Him Early, but You Need to Swallow That Pride and Dump His No-Talent-Having Ass

• Clinton Portis – I am now officially rescinding the title of My Own Personal Jesus from Portis (bestowed last year). He’s not even on my team and I wince every time he gets stuffed at the goal line. And I’ve been wincing a lot lately.
• TJ Houshmandzadeh – See: Me, Dead to
• Bernard Berrian – Sure, he’ll get some catches. But Favre really likes this Harvin kid. A lot.

Um… what was that? What about Matt Forte? No, no, no… he looked good. Over 100 total yards this past Sunday. He’s starting to get in a rhythm.

What? Injured? Nah, everybody gets a little nicked up here and there. That’s what HGH is for.

Look, if he can play this Sunday, you better have him in your lineup. It’s the Lions for crying out loud.

What? What if he can’t crack a big number against Detroit?

Well…

I mean…

Tell you what – let’s just jump off that towering inferno of shame if and when we come to it, okay?

[Note: Even cbssports.com has even given up on Forte. On my league fantasy site, the system wasn’t highlighting him when the Bears had the ball, as it does every other player. That can’t be a good sign.]

This was a text to my brother at 2:17 PM on Sunday: “From now on, if i say holy forte, or even just forte, it should be understood it’s a euphemism for shit.”

It was right AFTER that when Forte fumbled at the goal line on a short pass over the middle.

(Sigh)

Here were my three favorite announcer moments of the weekend:

3. Bears-Seahawks

Charles Davis: “The Bears and the Seahawks united in their quest to win this ballgame”

3. Bears-Seahawks (again)

Charles Davis: “The decision by Lovie Smith to challenge that play (Forte goal line fumble) reminds me of something a friend told me a long time ago: ‘Hey…’”

Dick Stockton (All-Time King of Being Oblivious… completely unaware his partner is talking, let alone in the middle of an anecdote): “…There you see Forsett and Obomanu back for the Seahawks. There you see Justin Forsett. Kicking off Robbie Gould.”

And then, dead silence.

He’s not the best color man in the league for nothing, folks.

However, not to be outdone…

1. Ravens-Browns

The announcer in the Ravens-Browns game, upon seeing Browns’ tackle Shawn Rogers in a scuffle with a Ravens player: “Wow… he just picked him up like he was picking up a newborn and throwing him… [suddenly catching himself, realizing that maybe a ‘baby throwing’ analogy might not be such a great idea]… into… a… basket.” [Silence.]

Nice catch there, guy. That was much better.

What was the Pittsburgh return guy doing dancing around with a few seconds left in the game instead of giving Big Ben one shot at a downfield heave? Not for nothing, but that black dude from House needs to get his team straightened out.

What? Part One: So, Terrell Owens – he of the first zero catch game in about ten years, various crappy reality TV shows, sit-ups in driveways, and a seemingly endless trail of destroyed football relationships and burned bridges in his wake – drops another clunker for his new team and he’s complaining about being goaded and not treated fairly by the media? My heart bleeds for him.

Say What? Part Two: The Raiders are going out of their way to try and ban Rich Gannon from their facilities because he’s been particularly critical of them (i.e.,, doing his job/telling it like he sees it/not saying anything that the rest of the planet isn’t saying). At the same time, they’re also going out of their way to cover up an assistant coach getting assaulted by Tom Cable and having his jaw broken? I think Gannon was right – they need to burn down that stadium with all the Raiders in it (including Al Davis… but not Nnamdi Asomugha. I love that guy).

…and finally…

In case you haven’t noticed, Ryan and I make our NFL picks every Thursday. I went 15-1 for the second time this season… impressive, right? Except when you factor in that I am (well, was) in an NFL pool where you have to pick ONE winner every week without repeating your teams throughout the season. Yup… guess which team I backed?

(Sigh)

See you next week.